1. By the year 2005, the number of teens, age 14 to 17, will swell by 17 percent, with an even larger increase among people of color — 20 percent among African-Americans and 30 percent among Latinos. Given the difficult conditions in which many of these youngsters grow up —with inferior schools and violence-torn neighborhoods —many more teenagers will be at risk in the years ahead.
到2005年，年龄在14到17岁青少年的数量将增长17%，其中有色人种的增长更为迅速—美国黑人增长20%，拉丁裔美国人增长30%。考虑到许多年轻人在成长过程中遇到的各种困境 — 例如在教学质量不高的高校就读，遭遇具有暴力倾向的邻居—更多的青少年会在未来遇到危险。
2. Tragically, the number of violent teens has grown in recent years, even as the population of teenagers has contracted. But the teen population has bottomed out and is now on the upswing. If current rates of offending remain unchanged, the number of teens who commit murder and other serious violent crimes shall increase, if only because of the demographic turnaround in the population at risk. However, given the worsening conditions in which children are being raised, given the breakdown of all our institutions as well as of our cultural norms, given our wholesale disinvestment in youth, our Nation faces the grim prospect of a future wave of juvenile violence that may make the coming years look like “the good old days.”
更可悲的是，在青少年人口数量减少的情况下，具有暴力倾向的青少年数量在近年来有所增加。青少年人口数量降到最低点，现在又呈现上升趋势。如果保持目前的犯罪率不变，只要人口上升的趋势不变，青少年犯杀人罪或其他暴力罪行的数量会有所增长。然而考虑到孩子们成长在日益恶化的环境中，考虑到我们的所有机构以及文化规范的瓦解，考虑到对青少年投资的大规模缩减，我们的国家面临着暗淡的前景，青少年暴力行为会像浪潮席卷而来，这使将要到来的年代像是“值得回忆的旧时光。”
3. The hopeful news is that there is still time to stem the tide —to prevent the next wave of youth crime. But we must act now —by reinvesting in schools, recreation, job training, support for families, and mentoring. We must act now while this baby-boomerang generation is still young and impressionable, and will be impressed with what a teacher, a preacher, or some other authority figure has to say. If we wait until these children reach their teenage years and the next crime wave is upon us, it may be too late to do much about it.
值得欣慰的是我们还有时间来遏制这一潮流—阻止青少年犯罪的下一次高峰。但是我们必须现在就行动 — 通过投资兴建学校、提供娱乐场所、给予工作培训、给家庭提供援助、耐心教导等。我们必须现在就行动，二战后出生的这一代还小，很容易受影响，老师、牧师、权威人士所说的话会给他们留下深刻印象。如果我们等到这些孩子长到十几岁，那么下一个犯罪高潮就会来临，到那时就来不及了。
4. The challenge for the future, therefore, is how best to deal with youth violence. Unfortunately, we are obsessed with quick and easy solution that will not work, such as the wholesale transfer of juveniles to the jurisdiction of the adult court, parental responsibility laws, midnight curfews, the V-chip, boot camps, three strikes, even caning and capital punishment, at the expense of long-term and difficult solutions that will work, such as providing young children with strong, positive role models, quality schools, and recreation programs.
因此未来的挑战就是怎样解决青少年犯罪。不幸的是，我们都倾向于快速简单但并不奏效的解决方式，比如把青少年罪犯移交成人法庭，父母监护法的出台、午夜宵禁、电视节目控制、无期徒刑、三振出局法，甚至是关押，罚款等。真正有效的是那些长期的有难度的做法，比如给青少年树立伟大的正面的英雄偶像、提供高质量的学校教育和娱乐方式。
5. One of the most compelling easy solutions is the “three strikes you’re out” movement for repeat offenders that has swept across America, from Washington State, where is began, to Washington. D.C. , where our congressmen and congresswomen are eager to show their constituents that they can strike out the side on crime.
最有强制力量最简单的解决方案之一就是对惯犯所实施的“三振出局法”，这一运动曾横扫美国，从它的发源地华盛顿州，到华盛顿特区，国会议员们纷纷向他们的投票人显示，他们在打击犯罪方面成效卓越。
6. Besides the significant drain on court resources as many more felons demand jury trials, disputing second and third strike calls more vociferously than Billy Martin ever did, besides the long-term effects of filling our prisons with aging lifers whose criminal history is really history, and besides the inevitable miscarriages of justice when certain petty felons get sent up the river inappropriately, why do we need this kind of automatic provision? Most States have long maintained a provision for locking up the so0called “three-time losers.” On a case-by-case basis, certain habitual offenders could and should be put on ice for an extended period of time. What’s so wrong with discretion? Even in baseball, umpires have discretion in calling strikes. The umpire rules whether the pitch was on the corner or whether the batter checked his swing. Perhaps we should give judges as much discretion as the umpires. Punishments should be based on the nature of the crimes, not the number.
这要消耗大量的法庭资源，因为更多的重刑犯需要陪审团审判，长期的结果就是监狱里尽是上了年纪的无期徒刑犯，他们的犯罪史真的可以称作是真正的历史，有些并不严重的罪犯因误判而被关进监狱，我们为什么需要这种预防性措施呢？很多州都有把“违法三次”的罪犯关进监狱的做法。由于采用以案件为基础的审判制度，这些惯犯能够而且应该被延长刑期。这一观点有什么不对吗？即使在棒球比赛中，裁判员在击球时要做出判断。裁判员要做出判决，投球是否落在角落，或者击球者是否正确回击。也许我们应该让法官拥有像裁判员一样的审判权力。惩罚应该是基于犯罪的性质，而不是数量。
7. The same concern over the elimination of judicial discretion applies to the national movement toward the automatic waiver of violent juveniles to the adult court. Undeniably, certain repeat violent juvenile offenders have demonstrated through recidivism that they are not amenable to treatment. These offenders can and should be transferred to the adult system. But this is not the case will all juvenile violent offenders, even though they may commit an adult-like crime such as murder or rape. The inspiration for their vicious crimes often stems from their immaturity — for example, kids committing murder in order to impass their peers.
人们除了对司法审判的取消很关注之外，针对青少年罪犯移交成人法庭的自动放弃权也掀起了全国性的运动。不可否认，有些屡次犯罪的青少年成为惯犯，而且很难管教。但这并不适用于所有的青少年违法者，即使他们犯了像成人一样的杀人罪或强奸罪，因为促使他们犯罪的动机可能是不成熟—比如孩子杀人的目的仅仅是为了在伙伴中树立威信。
8. Don’t misunderstand me. I’m not opposed to punishment (except capital punishment). However, we cannot deal effectively with teen violence through the threat of the criminal justice system. The threat of punishment, no matter how harsh, cannot deter kids who face the threat of violence every day in their classrooms and their neighborhoods. As far as they are concerned, the criminal justice system can just take a number and wait its turn in line. Often these are juveniles who care little about the future, who don’t expect to live past their 21st birthday. The prospect of a long-term prison sentence or even the death penalty will dissuade them in the least.
不要误解我。我并不是反对惩罚（罚款除外）。但是我们并不能通过刑事司法制度来有效解决青少年犯罪问题。不管惩罚多么严厉，都不能减少孩子在教室里或在社区里所面临的暴力威胁。就他们而言，刑事司法制度只是片面的，而且是无休止的。因为这些青少年并不关心未来，他们没有期望能够活到21岁。长期的监狱生活甚至是死刑都无法阻止他们犯罪。
9. Of course, I am hardly the first person to advocate for prevention rather than punishment. Many policymakers have been pushing prevention programs — form education to recreation — but the programs are not early enough. For example, anti-violence curricula promoting conflict resolution skills have been introduced in may high schools across America. But that’s far too little and much too late. Those teens whom we most need to reach are often not in high school. And if they are in high school, they’re not listening. If they’re listening, they don’t care.
当然我并不是第一个倡导预防犯罪而不是惩罚犯罪的。许多政策制度者已经推出了预防方案 — 从教育到娱乐 — 但是这些措施不够早。例如，在美国很多高中学校都开设反暴力课程，教导学生应对暴力冲突的技巧。但这还远远不够，而且太晚了。真正有这一需要的并不是在高中。因为在高中，学生是不会听的。即使他们在听，也不会在意的。
10. We must instead locate these programmatic efforts in the primary grades where we can make a significant difference in the attitudes and behaviors of children before they are seduced by the temptation of street thrills, gang membership, drugs, and crime. Of course, we then must be patient, for we will not see an impact of this investment on the crime problem for a number of years until these young children become teenagers and are not as violent as their predecessors.
所以我们必须把这些项目在小学加推广，在孩子们还没有被街上的暴力、黑帮成员、毒品和犯罪所诱惑的时候，使孩子们在态度上和行为上有所改过。当然，我们必须要很耐心，因为我们要看到这些孩子长成青少年，而且不再和他们的上一代那样残暴，这需要相当长的一段时间。
11. From a purely political point of view, investing in long-term solutions may not seem overly attractive. Rather, the three R’s of punishment —retribution, revenge, and retaliation —clearly tend to promote the fourth R, re-election. Nevertheless, it is critical that our leaders on Capitol Hill maintain a balanced view between punishment and prevention. As always, an ounce of prevention in terms of programs for youth is worth 10 years of cure inside the walls of a prison cell. It is far easier and considerably less expensive to build the child than to rebuile the adult criminal. With solutions to the problem of youth crime, we can stem the tide of violence before it is too late.
从单纯政治的角度，投资于长期的解决方案似乎没有太大吸引力。惩罚的三项措施 — 惩罚、报仇、报复 — 要加上第四项重新选举。更为关键的是，国会的领导人在惩罚和预防上要采取平衡的态度。通常即使是轻微的预防，也相当于监狱里十年的治疗。培养一个儿童要比重新改造一个成年罪犯要容易得多，而且花费不得多。随着联邦政府承诺在青少年犯罪问题上进行长期的投资，采用卓有成效的解决方案，我们一定能够在暴力狂潮到来之前加以阻止。