senior doctors today published a report warning that climate change is the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century.
rising global temperatures would have a catastrophic effect on human health, the doctors said, and patterns of infection would change, with insect-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever spreading more easily.
heatwaves such as occurred in europe in 2003, which caused up to 70,000 "excess" deaths, will become more common, as will hurricanes, cyclones and storms, causing flooding and injuries.
"we have not just underestimated but completely neglected and ignored this issue," said richard horton, editor of the lancet, which published the report commissioned from university college london. "this has not been an issue on the agenda of any professional body in health in the last 10 years in any significant way. this report is one of the stepping stones in changing that culture within the health sector. it is the biggest employer in britain and it should be a leading voice in the debate."
the lead author of the report, prof anthony costello, a paediatrician who works on maternal and newborn health in the developing world, said his own views had changed. "i thought there were other priorities 18 months ago," he said. now he believed that mitigating the impact of rising temperatures was urgent. "every year we delay, the costs go up. we are setting up a world for our children and grandchildren that may be extremely turbulent."
the biggest impact could be in food and water shortages, which in the past have led to war and mass migration.
prof hugh montgomery, of ucl's institute for human health and performance, who was one of the report's authors, noted that mikhael gorbachev had linked 21 recent conflicts to water instability.
the report says that the poorest people in the world will be worst affected. although the carbon footprint of the poorest billion people is about 3% of the world's total footprint, loss of life is expected to be 500 times greater in africa than in the wealthy countries.
despite improvements in health, 10 million children still die every year, more than 200 million children under five are not developing as well as they should, 800 million people are hungry, and 1,500 million people do not have clean drinking water. all those things could worsen very significantly, the report says.
the impact of heatwaves, flooding and global food shortages will be felt in britain too, the authors warned. "this is an immediate danger. it is going to affect you and it will certainly affect your children. while there is the injustice that the poorest will be worst affected, you will be affected too," said montgomery.
the report says evidence on greenhouse gas emissions, temperature and sea-level rises, the melting of ice-sheets, ocean acidification and extreme climatic events suggests the forecasts by the intergovernmental panel on climate change in 2007 might be too conservative. the uk target, to limit global warming to two degrees more, is unlikely to be achieved.
costello, however, said the message from the report was not entirely negative. "there is an awful lot we can do," he said. reducing carbon emissions would encourage people to cut use of vehicles, and if that led to more walking and cycling it would tend to lower stress levels, reduce obesity, and lessen heart disease, lung disease and stroke risks.
一些资深医生今天发表了一份报告。他们警告说，气候变化是二十一世纪全球健康状况的最大威胁。
医生们说，全球气温升高将对人类健康产生灾难性影响，它将改变传染病的传播形式，使疟疾和登格热之类的虫媒病更容易传播。
2003年在欧洲发生的那种热浪（导致70，000“额外”死亡）将更加频繁地出现，导致洪水和人体损伤的飓风、旋风和暴风雨也将频繁出现。
“我们不仅仅是估计不足，而是完全忽略和不重视这个问题。”理查德·霍尔顿说。他是《柳叶刀杂志》的编辑，受伦敦大学学院的委任发表了这个报告。“在过去十年里，任何健康有关的专业机构都没有以任何有意义的方式把这个问题提到议事日程上来。这份报告是改变卫生部门那种观念的一个阶梯，是英国最大的雇主，应该成为这场辩论的领先意见。”
报告的主要作者安东尼·科斯特洛教授是一位儿科医师，他致力于研究发展中世界孕产妇和新生儿健康。他说自己的观点已经改变，“八个月前，我还认为需要优先考虑其它问题。”如今，他坚信减轻气温升高的影响是当务之急。”每耽搁一年，成本都会升高。我们正在为子孙后代建造的世界也许是极其动荡的世界。”
食物和饮用水的短缺可能会对健康造成最大影响，过去，这种情况导致了战争的爆发和大规模的移民。
伦敦大学学院研究人类健康与性能研究所的休·蒙哥马利教授是报告的作者之一。他指出，米哈尔·戈尔巴乔夫已经将最近的二十一起冲突与水不稳定联系起来了。
报告说，世界上最贫穷的人将受到最严重的影响。尽管拥有十亿最贫穷人口的碳影响区只占世界碳影响区总数的3%，但是，预计在非洲地区丧生的人口将超过富裕国家五百倍。
报告说，尽管健康状况有所改善，但是，每年仍有一千名儿童死亡，两亿名儿童的健康状况没有得到应有的改善，八亿人口处于饥饿之中，十五亿人口喝不上干净的饮用水。所有这些情况都可能极为显著地恶化。
报告的作者们警告说，热浪、洪水和全球食品短缺也会影响英国。“这是直接的危险。它将影响你，当然也会影响你的孩子们。即使有最贫穷的人将受到最严重的影响的不公平现象，你也会受到影响。”蒙哥马利说。
报告说，温室气体排放、气温和海平面升高、冰盖消融、海洋酸化以及各种极端气候事件的迹象表明，2007年政府间气候变化问题小组的预报可能过于保守了。英国限制气温两度以上升高的目标不大可能实现。
不过，科斯特洛说，来自报告的信息并非都是消极的。他说，我们能做的事情太多了。”减少碳排放将鼓励人们减少使用机动车辆，如果这样能让人们更多步行或骑自行车，势必会降低压力强度、减轻体重、减少患心脏病、肺病和中风的风险。