it has long been assumed that the cavalier behavior of teenagers — driving too fast, engaging in unprotected sex, dabbling in illicit drugs — is due in part to their characteristic disregard for mortality. teens, as any beleaguered parent of one can attest, usually operate under the presumption that they know it all and will live forever.
or, do they? a new study published in the july issue of the journal pediatrics would suggest precisely the opposite. for some teens, at least, their reckless, sometimes life-endangering choices are fueled not by feelings of being bulletproof, but by the belief that they're doomed to die young anyway.
in a long-term analysis of 20,594 american teens in grades 7 through 12, researchers interviewed the youngsters on three different occasions: first in 1995, again in 1996, then a final follow-up from 2000 to 2001. at the first interview, 1.4% of participants thought there was "almost no chance" that they'd reach their mid-30s; 2.4% thought it was possible, but hugely unlikely; and 10.9% believed they had only about a 50-50 shot of celebrating their 35th birthday. researchers discovered that those who believed they were likely to die young were more likely to make potentially life-threatening choices — such as getting into violent fights or having unprotected sex with multiple partners — than teens who weren't expecting an early death.
"thankfully most youths don't hold this belief," says lead author dr. iris wagman borowsky, an associate professor of pediatrics at the university of minnesota, "but 15% did. that's one in seven youths in this country."
whether it was the risky behavior or the fatalistic worldview that presented itself first during the course of the study, borowsky found they remained correlated over the years. youths who reported that they had contemplated suicide, consistently gotten into fights, had unprotected sex or abused drugs by the time of the first interview in 1995 were more likely to develop a pessimistic attitude about their mortality during the subsequent interviews. likewise, says borowksy, "we found that those who felt they had a higher likelihood of dying early were more likely in later years to begin engaging in risky behaviors."
what's more, having a negative view of the future varied widely among respondents, depending on their ethnicity, gender and socioeconomic status. older male hispanic adolescents were the most likely to believe their lives would be cut short. among teens whose families received any form of financial assistance from the government, nearly one-quarter believed they were likely to die young.
the fact is that minorities and the underprivileged are among the populations in the u.s. who are statistically at higher risk of early death than, say, wealthy white americans, according to government data. the irony, borowsky says, is that these fatalistic belief systems may help perpetuate the tendency toward poor health and early demise in certain social or ethnic groups. "what's disturbing to me is how this could contribute to health disparities among minorities as well as youths from different socioeconomic backgrounds," she says. "if youths are in an environment where they look around and see more adults dying early, then they may develop this perception that they will die early as well." and that may drive teens toward careless behaviors.
borowsky's findings, while grim, present an opportunity to interrupt that self-fulfilling cycle (and she also found that as teens grow up, their negative views don't always persist). in the long term, she says, more research is needed for a deeper understanding of teens' emotional lives. but in the short term, prevention may be as simple as encouraging teenagers to think about their futures and set goals going forward; families and communities should then support children in achieving them.
"i think this is something that can take place in primary medical settings as well as school settings," borowsky says. she believes we can make a difference — even save lives — just by asking teens one simple question: "what do you want to do when you get older?"
滥交，吸毒，向来都是一些少男少女的最爱， 他们这种非主流的生活方式也许可以归咎于他们对生命和死亡有着一些独特的看法。在身心疲惫的父母们眼里，孩子们都自高自大，好像什么都懂似的，而他们之所以每天这么high，就是因为他们觉得自己永远死不了。
但事实真是如此吗？7月份的pediatrics杂志则 刊登了一份完全相反的研究报告。对一些青少年，他们的冲动疯狂，有时甚至会危及生命的行为并不是他们相信自己有着不死之身，恰恰相反，他们觉得自己注定会死的早。
美国研究者曾长期跟踪调查20594 位7到12年级的学生 ，研究人员分别在1995年，1996年和2000年至2001年间对这些学生进行采访。在第一次采访中， 1.4%的参与者认为自己“几乎没有任何机会”可以活到35岁 ， 2.4%认为这是可能的，但“几率很低”，还有10.9%的人认为能庆祝35岁生日的机会只有一半。同时结果显示，那些相信自己可能早死的年青人更有可能做出一些玩命事情，比如参与斗殴或滥交成性。
“值得庆幸的是大部分青少年的思想还是健康的，但还是有15%的学生有这种想法，这大约是所有美国儿童的七分之一。 ”美国明尼苏达大学的儿科系副教授iris wagman borowsky博士说，他是这项研究的负责人。
borowsky博士发现，孩子们对危险举动和宿命论的热衷是在上学期间形成的，但往往会持续很多年。在95年的采访中，那些承认自己尝试过自杀，打架，不安全的性行为或吸毒的学生在之后再次调查时已变得不相信自己可以活得长久。borowksy同时也说： “我们发现，那些觉得自己有较高的可能性会过早死亡的学生在以后的几年则开始干各种危险的事。 ”
但分属不同种族，性别和社会经济地位的年青人对宿命论看法则有很大分歧。年纪较大的西班牙男性青年最有可能认为他们的生命将早早夭折。同样，那些家庭要领取政府援助金的孩子几乎有四分之一认为他们不可能活得久。
但事实确实如此，政府公布的数据显示，少数族裔和贫困人群年青人的夭折率要比富裕白人高一些。具有讽刺意味的是，如果少数族裔和贫困人群的没有这种偏激的宿命观，他们的生病和致死率可能要比现在来的低。borowsky博士还说， “我现在的精力都用在研究宿命论是如何影响少数族裔及来自不同社会经济背景的孩子，如果年轻人环顾四周，发现周围的人都早早就死了，那么他们可能会觉得这理所当然也会发生在自己身上。”这也许会让青少年更加不在意自己的生命。
borowsky的调查结果虽然不容乐观，但同时说明了我们还是有机会去结束这种恶性循环。（她还发现，随着青少年长大，他们的负面情绪也许会消失） 。从长远来看，她表示，我们还需要更多的研究才能深入了解青少年的心里想法。但在短期内，我们能做的其实很简单：鼓励青少年思考自己的未来和既定目标，家庭和社区则要尽可能的提供帮助。
“我认为基层医疗机构及学校都可以有自己的方法。 ”borowsky说。她相信，只要我们让青少年回答一个简单的问题就可以拯救许多生命，“你要做什么当你老了？ ”