whether the market goes up or down from here, these blue chips are great investments."
despite the market's recent resuscitation, many stocks are still trading at fire-sale prices-no surprise given the immense decline that preceded the advance. but which stocks should you buy?
between march 9 and may 4, standard & poor's 500-stock index surged 34%. beaten-down "value" stocks and stocks of smaller companies have been the best performers during the recovery. examples of revived value stocks are citigroup (symbol c), which tripled from an intra-day low of 99 cents on march 9 to $3.20 at the may 4 close, and bank of america (bac), which skyrocketed from $3 to $10.38. meanwhile, morningstar's small-company-value index rose 22% in april, and its large-company-growth index gained just 8%.
i'm not jumping on the bandwagon. given the fragility of the markets, the financial system and the economy, i don't think stocks of small companies or companies with huge problems are the ones to buy. instead, i think you should put most of your money into the highest-quality blue chips (companies with little or no debt and the ability to generate a lot of cash).
if you're looking for ideas, morningstar stockinvestor ($119 annually) is a great resource. according to the authoritativehulbert financial digest, the newsletter's stock picks returned an annualized 2.6% from the end of 1999 through last february, a period in which the broad-based dow jones wilshire 5000 stock index lost an annualized 5.0%. what's more, the morningstar letter is less risky than the index and tends to do little trading; on average, the letter holds stocks for about three years.
editor paul larson says he looks for companies with competitive advantages over their rivals: "my strategy is fairly simple. i focus on high-quality companies, and i buy them when they're cheap."
morningstar's 100-plus stock analysts estimate "intrinsic value" for every company they cover. they compare intrinsic value to a company's share price to arrive at a star rating. larson then draws up two lists -- a "tortoise" portfolio and a "hare" portfolio-consisting of about 25 highly rated stocks each.
the stocks below are chosen from stockinvestor's tortoise, or lower-risk, portfolio.
larson's favorite is warren buffett's berkshire hathaway (brk.b). at $3,114.90 a share on may 4, the stock has shed more than one-third of its value in the past year. but larson believes that berkshire's collection of more than 70 businesses, dominated by insurance, is dirt-cheap. says larson: "for a long time, people have been pricing berkshire as though buffett were no longer around. but he's still alive and kicking-and adding value. and the balance sheet is still one of the strongest around, even though the company no longer carries a triple-a debt rating."
the world's largest and most diverse health-care company, johnson & johnson (jnj), is another favorite. larson says that the company is largely insulated from economic downturns. "people need to take their medicines regardless of what the economy is doing," he says. j&j is well-managed, has little debt and generates a staggering $1 billion in free cash flow per month (free cash flow is the money left after a company makes the capital expenditures needed to maintain the business). the stock closed at $53.76 on may 4.
defense giant general dynamics (gd) is another company that's built to withstand recessions. it builds ships and armored vehicles, as well as information-technology systems for the military. "the government has a vested interest in maintaining the health of this company," larson says. "it came through the defense department budget cuts relatively unscathed." the company boasts a rock-solid balance sheet. the stock closed at $54.00.
wal-mart stores (wmt), the world's largest retailer, has increased its market share during the economic slump. its sales of consumer staples at discount prices have been increasing as other retailers have been going out of business. the company's managers are focusing on cutting costs and satisfying customers. wal-mart, one of only two stocks in the dow industrials to climb last year, closed at $50.84.
as employee benefits grow ever more complex, automatic data processing (adp) benefits. it provides such services as payroll processing and benefits administration. its large scale and respected brand, and the high cost of switching to another vendor, give it a big competitive advantage. the share price: $34.86.
when competitors were spending enormous sums to build up oil-and-gas reserves during last year's bubble in oil prices, exxonmobil (xom) stayed focused on increasing profit margins. because of that, exxon can continue to buy back shares, raise its dividend and increase capital spending (at a price of $68.20, the stock yields 2.5%). it's the world largest integrated oil-and-gas company, and participates in almost every facet of the business.
"无论股票市场是上涨还是下跌，这些蓝筹股都是极好的投资选择。"
由于缺乏对市场在近期复苏的信心，很多股票仍然在以不出意外的超低价格被交易，这些价格相比之前有了巨大的下跌。那么，有哪些股票值得你去买进呢？
在4月9日到5月4日中，标准普尔-500指数猛涨34%。曾大幅贬值的股票以及中小企业的股票在这轮回涨中有了超强的表现。这其中的典型例子就是花旗银行（代码：c），它的价格从4月9日当天的低点价位99美分飙升到5月4日的3.20美元。还有美国银行（bac），从3美元飙升至10.38美元。与这种现象对应的是，晨星公司的中小企业指数在4月也涨了22%，它的大企业指数上涨了8%。
我并不是个非主流。拜脆弱的金融系统和市场经济所赐，我并不认为那些中小企业或者存在很多问题的公司的股票值得购买。与之相反，我倒觉得你应该把绝大部分资金投到那些高质量的蓝筹股（没有或者只有很少的债务，并且有能力收入大量现金的公司）上。
如果你想得到这方面的建议，晨星股票投资（每年会员费119美元）是个很好的资源提供者。根据权威的胡伯特财经分析（的分析），从1999年末到今年的一月份，通讯类股票每年带来2.6%左右的升值，与之对应的是具有广泛代表性的道琼斯威尔希尔5000指数平均每年下跌 5.0%。值得注意的是，晨星的风险低于（道琼斯）指数并且（持有股票后）往往很少交易，它的持有的股票平均时限是三年左右。
（晨星的）编辑保罗.拉森说他看重的是那些比对手更有实力的公司：“我的策略很简单。就是关注那些有着高质量的公司，然后在他们股价便宜的时候买进（股票）。”
晨星的100多个股票分析师们会为他们知晓的每一家公司内在价值做个评估。他们比较公司的内在价值和公司在达到一个新高度时候的市值。拉森随之列出了两份单子：---一队是“乌龟”组合，一队是“野兔”组合---每队都分别包含了25支高价位的股票。
这些股票都是从股票投资者的“乌龟”或者“野兔”（较低风险）中选出来的。
拉森最青睐沃伦.巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦（brk.b）。在5月4日每股3114.90美元（译注：你没有看错，就是这么多，原来以为google的股价已经够高了吧）的行情出来后，这支股票在过去的一年已经蒸发掉了市值的三分之一。但是拉森相信拥有70多家子公司，以及保险产业占据主导地位的伯克希尔公司已经非常便宜了。拉森说：“很长一段时间，人们追捧出的伯克希尔公司（的高股价）好像预示着巴菲特坚持不下去了。但是他仍然活着并且在继续击败竞争对手和追加投资。即使伯克希尔公司已经不再参加3a级信用评定，它依然拥有一张最强劲的资产负债表。”
世界上最大,产品最多样化的健康护理公司，强生公司（jnj），是另一家获得亲睐的公司。拉森说这家公司已经大到可以和经济下滑绝缘，“人们需要关心他们自己的健康而不管经济是晴是雨”他说。强生公司被很好的管理着，债务很少，并且每个月能赚进惊人的10亿美元的自由现金流（自由现金流指的是企业为了保持经营而扣除必要的资本支出后所剩下的现金）。这支股票5月4日的收盘价是53.76美元。
军工巨头通用动力（gd）是另外一家可以承受住（经济）衰退的公司。这家公司在建造舰船和装甲车方面就和构造军队信息科技系统一样出色。“政府对通过保持这家公司的良好经营从而获取回报很热衷。”拉森说，“这种兴趣来自于通用动力并没有削减多少的预算。”这家公司拥有坚若磐石的资产负债表。此股的收盘价为54.00美元（5月4 日）。
沃尔玛零售（wmt），世界上最大的零售商，在经济不景气的环境下依然在开发市场。当对手们都在退出打折售卖主食这块领域的时候，沃尔玛反而在扩充。公司的经营者们专注于削减开支以及满足顾客的需求。沃尔玛，作为去年仅有的两家道琼斯工业平均指数统计中上涨的股票，收盘价达到了50.84美元（5月4日）。
当员工的收益增长越来越多样化的时候，自动数据处理公司（adp）也在得益。它提供的利好包括薪水支付以及收益管理。它的巨大规模，良好口碑，以及提供给供应商时候的高昂价格，给予了它巨大的竞争优势。收盘价报收34.68美元（5月4日）。
在去年油价具有泡沫，竞争对手们花费巨额金钱以建立石油-天然气储备的时候，埃克森美孚(xom)却在关注利润的增长率。正因为如此，埃克森美孚才能继续回购股票，提升红利以及增加资本开支（当股价在68.20美元的时候，它已经有了2.5%的收益）。它是全球最大的综合性石油-天然气公司，并且几乎参与了市场的各个层面。