For foreign investors in emerging market equities, currency risk has always loomed large. During the 12 months to April 22, according to JPMorgan Asset Management, the impact of exchange rates was negative in 15 out of 18 big emerging markets, neutral in two (China and Peru) and marginally positive only in the Philippines (see charts below).
对于新兴市场股市的外国投资者而言，汇率风险总是会产生巨大影响。摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)称，截至今年4月22日的12个月中，18个大型新兴市场中有15个的汇率影响为负面，2个（中国和秘鲁）为中性，仅有菲律宾的汇率影响为略微正面。
It turned positive returns for local investors into negative ones for foreigners in nine of the 18, including Brazil, Russia and Poland.
对外国投资者来说，在计入汇率影响后，18个大型新兴市场中有8个国家（包括巴西、俄罗斯和波兰）股市的正回报变成了负回报。
But it is a different picture this year. Exchange rates added to returns in four of the markets between January 1 and April 22 and were neutral in three — with the exceptions of Turkey and Brazil, the impact where negative has been much reduced.
但今年迄今的景象截然不同。今年1月1日至4月22日期间，4个大型新兴市场的汇率影响为正面，3个为中性；土耳其和巴西比较特别，这两个市场汇率的负面影响已大大减轻。
JPMorgan broke out returns for foreign investors into four components: dividends, change in earnings per share (in local currency) over the past 12 months, change over 12 months in the ratio of price to earnings, and the exchange rate.
摩根大通将外国投资者的股市投资回报拆分为四部分：股息，过去12个月每股收益(EPS)变化（以当地货币计算），过去12个月市盈率(P/E)变化，以及汇率。
Dividends, naturally, where paid are always positive. In a few cases — China, India, the Philippines and South Africa — the change in both EPS and P/E ratios was positive.
自然，股息总是正面的。就少数几个市场——中国、印度、菲律宾和南非——而言，每股收益和市盈率的变化也均为正面。
In many others, P/E ratios rose even as earnings per share fell, as investors decided the damage had been done and company performance would pick up from now on.
就其他很多市场而言，由于投资者认定损失已经造成、企业表现从这一刻起将开始回升，因此尽管这些市场的每股收益呈现下滑，它们的市盈率还是上升了。
But in many countries where investors took a positive view on local market performance, the gains for foreign investors were wiped out by the currency.
但在投资者对当 地市场表现持积极看法的很多国家中，外国投资者的投资回报被汇率影响彻底抹去了。
Investors can take some heart from the turnround so far this year. But the other thing the two charts make graphically clear is the importance of differentiation.
投资者可从今年迄今的境况反转中得到一些鼓舞。但本文两张图表以图形化方式阐明的另外一点是分化的重要性。
For emerging market equities as a whole, foreign investors have made 10 per cent so far this year, compared with 7 per cent over the past 12 months. So things have picked up, but not by much. Those who got their choices and timing right did much better. Those who got them wrong, much worse.
从整个新兴市场股市来看，外国投资者今年迄今的投资回报已达10%，而过去12个月仅为7%。因此，形势已有所好转，但并不显著。那些选对了市场和时机的投资者，投资回报可能要好得多。那些选错了的人，则要糟得多。
The past, of course, is a poor guide to the future. Nevertheless, Richard Titherington, chief investment officer for emerging markets at JPMorgan Asset Management, says that if you believe — as he does — that emerging markets are cyclical, then you can expect exchange rates to contribute to positive returns for foreign investors in Russia, Poland and even Brazil at some point in the next few years.
当然，过去并不是未来的好指引。但摩根大通资产管理公司新兴市场首席投资官理查德?蒂瑟林顿(Richard Titherington)称，如果你像他一样相信新兴市场是周期性的，那么你可以预期，在未来几年的某个时刻，汇率也会帮助俄罗斯、波兰、甚至巴西市场的外国投资者实现正回报。
His other tips are to choose shares that will benefit from a recovery in the US economy, such as those of Taiwanese companies, and to keep in mind the headwinds of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese economy.
蒂瑟林顿的其他建议是，选择那些将受益于美国经济复苏的股票，比如台湾企业的股票，还有就是不要忘了美元走强和中国经济走弱等不利因素。