Whatever the Chinese equivalent is of Kool-Aid, Yusuf Raza Gilani, Pakistan’s prime minister, appears to have been drinking it. During his recent state visit to Beijing, from where he returned with a promise of 50 fighter jets, he lavished praise on China. “We are like one nation and two countries,” he said, comparing Pakistan’s “Islamic socialism” to the thoughts of Mao Zedong. China, he enthused, “was the only voice of reason in international affairs”.
巴基斯坦总理优素福?拉扎?吉拉尼(Yusuf Raza Gilani)似乎陷入了对中国的狂热崇拜。在前些日对中国进行国事访问期间（中方在会晤中承诺向巴基斯坦提供50架战斗机），吉拉尼毫不吝惜对中国的赞美。“我们就像分成两个国家的同一个民族，”他还将巴基斯坦的“伊斯兰社会主义”比作毛泽东思想。他热烈赞美中国“是国际事务中唯一理性的声音”。
Pakistan likes to call China an “all-weather friend”. The implication is clear: the US is a fair-weather one. Many Pakistanis have never forgiven the US for abandoning it after the Soviet Union left Afghanistan in 1989. China, by contrast, has remained a constant supplier of arms, even when the US imposed sanctions in the 1990s as punishment for Islamabad’s nuclear programme.
巴基斯坦喜欢称中国为“全天候的朋友”，个中含义显而易见：美国只是一个“只能同甘、不能共苦”的朋友。许多巴基斯坦人至今仍无法原谅美国在1989年苏联从阿富汗撤军后就抛弃了他们。相比之下，中国始终如一地为巴供应武器——即使是在上世纪90年代美国为惩罚巴基斯坦发展核计划而对其实施制裁时，这种供应也没有间断。
Only in 2001, after al-Qaeda jihadists brought down the Twin Towers, did Washington seek Islamabad’s co-operation once more. Assurances were made that, this time, the US was in it for the long haul. But it is a commonplace belief in Islamabad that, sooner or later, Washington will tire of the war in Afghanistan. Its withdrawal will leave Pakistan alone once more in a volatile and violent neighbourhood.
只是到了2001年，在基地组织(al-Qaeda)圣战分子撞毁了双子塔后，华盛顿方面才再一次寻求巴基斯坦政府的合作。这一次，美国保证将致力于与巴基斯坦长期合作。但巴政府普遍相信，华盛顿方面迟早会对阿富汗战争感到厌倦。美国如果撤军，巴基斯坦将再次被迫独自面对动荡而充满暴力的周边局势。
Those fears may be coming true. The US is preparing to draw down troops from Afghanistan in July and says it wants to hand over responsibility for security to Kabul by 2014. Worse, following the killing of Osama bin Laden, who was inconveniently discovered a hand grenade’s throw away from a military academy in Abbottabad, a debate has begun in Washington about whether to cut off aid to Islamabad altogether.
这些担心可能正变成现实。美国正准备在7月份从阿富汗撤军，并表示愿在2014年之前将维护安全的职责移交给阿富汗政府。更糟糕的是，奥萨马?本?拉登(Osama bin Laden)在巴基斯坦被击毙后，华盛顿就是否切断给予巴基斯坦政府的全部援助展开了一场辩论。击毙本?拉登的行动暴露出一个令人尴尬的事实：从拉登藏身之处扔一枚手榴弹，便能击中阿伯塔巴德的一所军事学院。
The US is concerned that the Inter-Services Intelligence agency knew bin Laden was in Pakistan. Or it didn’t. Both look bad. His discovery has reignited suspicion that the ISI is playing a “double game” – using US cash to fight some Islamist militants while nurturing others.
美国担心，巴基斯坦三军情报局(ISI)早就知道拉登藏在巴基斯坦。但也有可能不知道。无论哪种可能看起来都很糟糕。拉登被发现，再次让人怀疑ISI在耍“两面派”——利用美国的钱镇压一些伊斯兰激进分子，同时再培养一批。
Contrast the finger-pointing from Washington with the soothing language coming from Beijing. An editorial in the Global Times, an official tabloid, praised Pakistan for its brave fight against terrorism. Indeed, since 2001, some 35,000 Pakistanis have been killed in domestic attacks, the equivalent of a September 11 2001 every eight months. “US media criticism indicates that it does not see Pakistan as a real ally that deserves respect,” the Global Times said. China, by contrast, “had set an example for the west on how to treat Pakistan as a sincere and co-operative partner”.
与华盛顿方面的指手画脚形成鲜明对比的，是北京方面那些抚慰人心的话语。中国官方小报《环球时报》(Global Times)在一篇社评中，称赞了巴基斯坦英勇的反恐行动。的确，自2001年以来，已有约3.5万巴基斯坦人在国内袭击事件中丧生，相当于每8个月遭遇一次9/11。“美国舆论的质问，反映出美国社会根本没把巴基斯坦当成应彼此尊重的反恐盟友，”社评写道。相比之下，“美国等西方国家若能以中国的态度看巴基斯坦，就会发现，换取这个国家的真诚相处没那么难”。
Islamabad is certainly appreciative. In Beijing, Mr Gilani asked China to take over the operation of Gwadar port, suggesting it could be upgraded to a naval base for Chinese use. (That has only served to deepen India’s fears that China intends to encircle it with ports strung from Bangladesh to Sri Lanka.) Pakistan already has trade with China of $8.7bn, against only $5.4bn with the US. Now it wants Beijing to build nuclear power stations and dams.
巴基斯坦政府当然满心感激。在访华期间，吉拉尼请求中国接管瓜达尔港的运营，暗示可以将该港升级为海军基地，供中国使用。（这只会加深印度的恐惧，担心中国意在从孟加拉国到斯里兰卡占据一连串港口来包围它。）巴中两国间的贸易额已达87亿美元，而巴美两国仅为54亿美元。现如今，巴方还希望北京方面为该国修建核电站和大坝。
This is something new. Aside from pariah states, such as North Korea and Burma, few countries have considered China powerful enough to play off against the US. Certainly, many Asian countries have tightly tethered their fortunes to China’s economic bandwagon. But virtually all have sought counterbalancing security ties with the US, still a dominant force in the Pacific. Now Pakistan is intimating that China, as well as being the economic partner of choice, may be a more reliable security partner too.
这些都是以前没有出现过的情况。除了朝鲜和缅甸等流氓国家，很少有哪国认为中国的实力已强大到能与美国抗衡。无疑，许多亚洲国家已牢牢地将自己的前途拴在中国经济身上。但在同时，它们又几乎全都寻求与美国建立安全关系，以制衡中国。美国仍是太平洋地区的主宰力量。现如今，巴基斯坦却在暗示，中国不仅是最佳经济合作伙伴，可能也是一个更可靠的安全伙伴。
Of course, Islamabad may simply be bluffing. It could be cozying up to China in order to frighten the US into continuing to send aid. Either way, Washington has an agonising choice. Isobel Coleman, senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, spells out the dangers of walking away. The last time the US did that, in the 1990s, she says, Pakistan pursued ties with the Afghan Taliban and allowed the proliferation of nuclear technology.
当然，巴基斯坦可能只是在虚张声势。奉承中国可能是为了吓唬美国，要挟它继续提供援助。无论是哪一种情况，华盛顿方面都面临着一个痛苦的抉择。美国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)美国外交政策资深研究员伊索贝尔?科尔曼(Isobel Coleman)阐明了抛弃巴基斯坦的危险。她表示，美国上一次这么做是在上世纪90年代，结果致使巴基斯坦寻求与阿富汗塔利班建立联系、并为核技术扩散开绿灯。
On the other hand, if Washington genuinely believes Pakistan’s military is sponsoring terrorism, there will be huge pressure to cut aid back. If those suspicions are true, it follows that part of the $20bn Washington has given Islamabad has been spent on killing American soldiers in Afghanistan.
但是，如果华盛顿方面真的相信巴基斯坦军方在资助恐怖主义，这将招致巨大的压力，要求其削减援助。如果这些怀疑属实，就意味着美国提供给巴基斯坦的200亿美元援助中，有一部分用作杀害美国驻阿士兵了。
Even some Pakistanis think the US should turn off the spigot. Mohsin Hamid, a Lahore-based author and intellectual, says American money has fed a bloated military establishment, creating a state within a state and destroying any chance of genuine civilian control. Shorn of US funding, “Pakistanis would be forced to build a society on their own resources”, he says.
甚至有一些巴基斯坦人也认为，美国应中断援助。拉合尔作家、知识分子穆赫辛?哈米德(Mohsin Hamid)就表示，美国人的钱供养了一个人员臃肿的军队，由此建立了一个国中之国，扼杀了一切真正实现文人统治的机会。没有了美国的资助，“巴基斯坦人将不得不利用本国资源建设国家，”他表示。
For all these reasons, argues James Brazier, Asia analyst at forecaster IHS Global Insight. China’s influence on Pakistan is bound to wax as that of America wanes. “In 10 years from now, China’s presence in Pakistan will be vastly greater than that of the US,” he predicts.
出于以上原因，美国经济预测机构IHS环球透视(IHS Global Insight)的亚洲分析师詹姆斯?布拉齐尔(James Brazier)表示，随着美国对巴影响力的减弱，中国对巴基斯坦的影响力定会增强。他预测，“未来10年内，中国在巴基斯坦的话语权将远远超过美国。”
If Mr Brazier is right, Pakistan could become the first strategically pivotal country to move from the US to the Chinese camp. Oddly enough, that may not suit Beijing, which remains wary of getting sucked too deeply into world affairs. Pakistan could turn out to be a closer friend than China had bargained on.
如果他的预测准确，巴基斯坦可能会成为第一个从美国阵营转投中国阵营的战略中枢国家。说也奇怪，这可能并不合北京方面心意——中国政府仍小心翼翼，避免过深卷入国际事务。巴基斯坦对中国的亲密程度可能会让后者在心理上来不及准备。