outsiders have many good reasons for not wading militarily into syria’s steadily bloodier mire. the country is not like libya: isolated, sparsely inhabited and vulnerable from the air. it contains a much bigger, more densely populated and diverse population in a tangle of sectarian and tribal knots. although syria’s ruler, bashar assad matches muammar qaddafi in brutality, he has heavier weapons, a bevy of powerful friends abroad and a considerable minority of supporters at home. any physical involvement, whether military or humanitarian, risks dragging syria into a prolonged proxy war, as in iraq a decade ago or lebanon further back.
外人又许多理由不武力介入叙利亚日趋血腥的泥潭之中。这个国家与地广人稀、与世隔绝且易受空袭的利比亚不同，它在错综复杂的教派与部落的聚集点里拥有密集而又多样的人口。虽然利比亚的统治者巴沙尔阿萨德与卡扎菲一样残暴，但他还有重型武器、一群有势力的外国朋友以及相对少数的国内支持者们。并且无论是武力还是人道介入，都会有危险使叙利亚卷入一场代理战争之中，就像十年前的伊拉克与更早时候的黎巴嫩一样。
yet the dangers of not intervening are also large and growing. the scale of casualties is already grim—some 10,000 dead in 13 months—and it shows no sign of lessening (see article). syria will only become harder to put back together. guns are flooding into the country; radical elements, including extreme islamists, are coming to the fore; the risk is rising of violence spilling over into fragile lebanon. mr assad’s own alawite community, which accounts for about a tenth of the total population, faces the prospect of being massacred if, as still seems likely, the regime eventually collapses.
但是，不介入的危险也很大，而且也在与日俱增。伤亡人数已经令人皱眉——13个月里死了一万人——而且还没有任何减弱的迹象。叙利亚只会更难恢复了。枪支大量流入境内；包括伊斯兰极端分子在内的激进分子们正越发活跃；暴力蔓延到不堪一击的黎巴嫩的可能性也在上身。阿萨德自己的阿拉维派占据了十分之一的人口。如果政权被推翻，他们就面临着被种族灭绝的危险，而且现在看来这种可能性仍存在。
with the west rightly wary of plunging into yet another maelstrom, the arab league, for years a toothless and often hypocritical body, has admirably taken the lead, asking kofi annan, a former secretary of the united nations, to seek, under the joint aegis of the un and the league, to persuade mr assad to negotiate. the syrian leader has agreed among other things to undertake a ceasefire, to remove his army and its heavy weapons from syria’s towns, to let in several hundred un observers along with foreign correspondents, to free political prisoners and to set about negotiating with his opponents.
当西方国家对于卷入这场风暴保持警惕的时候（这无可厚非），历来带着伪善面具但却毫无用处的阿拉伯联盟却打起了头阵（这令人敬佩），在联合国与其通力合作下，它要求联合国前秘书长科菲安南说服阿萨德进行会谈。阿萨德同意了几项事项，其中包括停火、从城镇撤军，撤出重型武器、允许几百名联合国观察员于国外记者进入、释放政治犯、与他的反对者进行协商。
the plan deserves a chance—if only because the alternatives of military action and inaction are so unpromising. but also because, russia, china and iran, which have buttressed mr assad, have agreed to it. as a result russia, which has real clout, might yet be drawn into negotiating for peace. and if mr assad had any sense, he would look for ways of making a soft landing for himself, perhaps accepting the creation of a round table as in poland in the 1980s, which might allow his baath party to share power, at least until proper elections are held.
军事行动和袖手旁观都没什么希望。从这点看来，这个计划就值得一试。这么做还因为力挺阿萨德的国家——俄国、中国、伊朗——也对其表示赞同。结果是，作为真正有影响力的国家——俄国，它也可能加入和平谈判之列。而且如果阿萨德还有一丝聪明才智的话，他应该找一个好台阶下——也许像80年代的波兰一样，建立一个圆桌会议以分化他复兴党的势力（至少在选举之前应保持如此）。
even so, the odds of success are slim. although the violence in places has subsided a bit, mr assad is already flouting several of the annan plan’s conditions. moreover, as soon as the un observers, who still number less than a score, have gone on their way, the killing tends to intensify again. the sooner the observers reach their complement of 300 or so, the better.
即使如此，成功的可能也微乎其微。虽然原有的暴力行为有所减弱，但阿萨德已经无视安南开出的几个条件了。此外，一旦联合国的观察员——现在还不足十二人——出发前去叙利亚，杀戮似乎将更残忍。观察员们越早达到300人的编制越好。
plan b? 有什么替代计划吗？
what though if mr assad is merely playing for time, as is all too probable? what if he has no intention of conceding real constitutional ground, let alone letting his battered people have a say? within a few weeks it should be plain which way mr assad is going. if it is the wrong direction, more drastic action is need—and in this case that means a safe haven.
如果阿萨德只是在玩拖延战术呢（现在看来很可能是如此）？如果他无意做出应有的退让，更不用说让受他压迫的的人们起来说话了。在几周之内阿萨德选的方向将见分晓。如果他选择了错误的方向，那就需要采取更大的措施——这样的话，就需要建立一个安全避难所。
mr assad has enjoyed the luxury of pounding his foes, city by city, leaving them little space in which to retreat or regroup. his opposition has long pleaded for protected areas along the border with neighbouring turkey and jordan, countries that have absorbed the largest number of syrian refugees. turkey and its western allies should start moving now towards meeting the syrian opposition’s request. mr assad needs to know that unless he rapidly adheres to mr annan’s proposals, diplomatic and logistical backing will be given to establish humanitarian safe zones—on the syrian side of the border.
阿萨德乐于一个个城市地打击他的反对者们，使他们无力反抗和重组。他的反对者们很早就提出再叙接壤的土耳其和约旦王国建立一个保护区，这些国家吸收了大量叙难民。土耳其与它的西方盟国应该开始考虑满足叙反对者的要求了。阿萨德也需要知道，除非他立即遵守安南给出的条件，否则国际社会会为在叙边境内建立人道主义保护区提供外交与后勤支持。