“grexit” is an ugly term for what may soon become an even uglier reality: greece’s departure from the euro zone. as fury in athens runs up against frustration with greek recalcitrance in the rest of the european union, the eu’s most troubled economy could be heading out of the single currency within weeks. if greek banks suffer a mass run, as depositors withdraw euros for fear they will be forcibly converted into new drachmas, greece’s fate could be settled even sooner.
“希腊退出（grexit）”本意是指希腊退出欧元区，然而这个糟糕的措词却有可能很快变成更糟糕的现实。出于对希腊在欧盟其它成员面前坚持自己的主张时所遭遇非难的愤怒，希腊，这个欧元区内最困难的国家可能会在几周内领头退出欧元区。而一旦储户因惧怕存款被重新强制兑换回希腊的原货币德拉克马而挤兑欧元，则希腊银行必遭大难，希腊的悲剧前提前上演。
greece’s ascendant politicians, particularly alexis tsipras, leader of the radical left syriza party, want to repudiate greece’s rescue deal with its european and imf creditors. the creditors, particularly germany, are standing firm, rightly making clear that they will not be blackmailed into repeatedly rewriting bail-outs. if in fresh elections on june 17th the objectors have a majority, as the polls suggest, and if they renege on greece’s bail-out deal, then the world will cut off the supply of rescue funds. it is hard to see greece then staying in the euro.
希腊得势政客，特别是极左syriza党领袖阿列克谢•蒂西普拉斯，妄图推翻希腊与做为资助方的欧盟和国际货币基金达成的援助协议。而资助方，尤其是德国，也坚持自己的立场，明确表示不接受要挟而改写先前的援助方案。如果如民调显示那样，syriza党在6月17日希腊新一轮大选获胜，并就援助协议违约的话，则外界将停止对求助基金的支持。之后希腊就很难留在欧元区了。
there is already a whiff of inevitability about an outcome once deemed impossible. central bankers now openly discuss the possibility that greece may leave. as the impossible lapses into the inevitable, a growing chorus is arguing that it is even desirable. advocates of an exit say that greece would gain from a cheaper currency, and that the politics of forging a closer fiscal and financial union between the euro zone’s remaining members would be easier without a country that should never have joined in the first place. but it is wrong to pretend that a greek exit is an easy or desirable outcome. before it is too late, greek politicians need to be honest about what an exit implies. and europe’s politicians need to act far more boldly to protect the rest of the euro zone in case the worst happens.
以前认为是不可能发生的事情，如今已有无法避免的迹象了。各国央行的行长们现在已公开谈论希腊退出的可能性了。而随着从不可能滑向不可避免，竟然有越来越多的声音认为希腊退出欧元区是合情合理的。鼓吹退出者指出希腊将会从更廉价的货币中受益，而取消了本来就不应该有的单一货币，将欧元区内其它国家打造成更为紧密的财政与金融联盟会更容易。但假设希腊的退出会轻而易举就大错特错了。在还来的及的情况下，希腊的政客们必须真正明白，退出意味着什么。而欧盟的领导人的魄力也必须更大一些，预防一旦局面恶化能够保护欧元区其它国家。
eirexit, porxit, spaxit and ixit
爱尔兰退出，葡萄牙退出，西班牙退出，冰岛退出
start with the greeks. most of them want to ditch the hated austerity policies that they blame for their plight. mr tsipras and his colleagues are fuelling the belief that greece can somehow avoid austerity and still stay in the euro. in fact greeks cannot avoid austerity, either within the euro or outside it.
希腊只是开始。多数受困国家都想要摆脱可恶的紧缩政策，并将其困境归罪于此。蒂西普拉斯和其同党们正极力鼓吹要希腊避免紧缩政策同时留在欧元区内的想法。但实情是，不管希腊退出或者留下，都将无法避免紧缩。
it is true that greece can survive within the euro only with a gruelling downward adjustment of wages and prices, which demands painful budget cuts and structural reforms. yet even stronger medicine would be required if greece left the euro. cut off from foreign funds, the country would be forced into still tighter fiscal austerity. it would need a disciplined monetary policy and bold structural reforms to retain the gains from its cheaper currency and avoid hyperinflation. discipline and reform are not familiar concepts in greek politics.
实际情况是，如果希腊想要继续留在欧元区，唯一的办法就是进行繁复的下调工资和价格，而这需要痛苦的消减预算和结构性调整。而且就算是希腊退出欧元区这些情况仍旧无法避免，甚至可能还要厉害。国外基金停止输入，希腊将被迫进行更严峻的财政紧缩。而为了保持从较廉价的货币中获利和防止恶性通胀，则需要纪律性的货币政策和大胆的结构性改革。希腊的政客们并不熟悉纪律和改革这两个概念。
moreover a chaotic greek departure would devastate the country’s political life, because greece would risk expulsion from the single market and perhaps even the eu itself. a place that shed dictatorship as recently as 1974 would find exclusion from europe traumatic. for a taste of what might ensue you only need to look at the rising power of extremists such as the neo-nazi golden dawn party.
此外，由于希腊冒险退出单一市场甚至是欧盟，希腊离去引发的混乱将摧毁该国的政治生命。希腊从1974年起才摆脱独裁统治，自此之后才不再被看做是欧洲之殇。紧接着会发生什么，只需要看看正在崛起的诸如新纳粹的金色黎明党这样的极端主义势力就会明白了。
if greek voters deserve greater honesty about the grexit, so do those in the rest of the euro zone. greece may be a small economy, but a greek departure from the euro, amid brinkmanship and bluster, would not be a small event. most obviously, exit—and the subsequent default on its private as well as official debt—would cost european banks, firms and taxpayers a lot of money (see article). and that is without counting the danger of a general contagion in weak euro-zone economies.
如果希腊的民众有权利更审慎地对待希腊退出欧元区，那么欧元区内的其它国家也应该这么做。希腊的经济总量并不大，但希腊离开欧元区，再加上边缘政策和那些大话就不是个小事了。最明显的是，退出---以及随后的私人和官方债务违约---将花费欧盟央行，公司和纳税人一大笔钱。而这还没有计算脆弱的区内经济被大规模传染的风险。
there is no formal mechanism for leaving the single currency. as depositors and bondholders across the euro zone factor in the increased risk that their assets could also fall victim to a break-up, other countries would come under pressure. today’s much-ballyhooed “firewall” is not nearly strong enough.
离开单一货币并没有正式的机制。而储户和债券持有者遍布欧元区的实际情况，也增加了他们的财产也可能因为希腊的离去而化为乌有的风险，因而区内其它国家也在重压之下。今天来看，曾大肆吹捧的“防火墙”也不过如此。
people strive to avoid disaster. yet the scope for political miscalculation and financial panic means that the worst might still happen—it may even come soon. deposits are fleeing greek banks at an accelerating pace. if financial panic forced a greek exit before the vote, it would wreck the credibility of pledges that banks across the euro zone are safe. as the greek economy shrinks within the euro, the economic arguments will become finely balanced—because capital will have fled and the debt burden loom larger. as greece’s politics is bankrupted, the siren call of populism may grow irresistible.
欧洲人正在极力避免灾难降临。然而留给打错了的政治算盘和金融恐慌的回旋余地表明更糟糕的局面还仅是开始---而且甚至会来的更快。存款加速从希腊银行流出。如果金融恐慌迫使希腊在下次大选前退出欧元区，则将损害欧盟的信誉，因其曾承诺区内银行都是安全的。如果希腊退出欧元区，欧元区的整个经济将会出现微妙的平衡---因为资金都将流走，而债务负担更为沉重。再如希腊政治破产，则民粹主义的诱惑将不可避免。
these dangers require urgent action. first, to prevent a mass run, the european central bank must be ready to flood the greek banks with liquidity—raising the losses to european taxpayers if greece does eventually leave. and second, to stop a greek exit being followed by a cascading loss of confidence in other peripheral economies, the euro zone must undergo much faster acceleration towards fiscal and financial integration than most european politicians will admit.
应对这些迫在眉睫危险必须快刀斩乱麻。首先，为防止祸水蔓延，欧央行必须准备好向希腊银行注入流动性---如果希腊最终退出欧元将增加欧盟纳税人的损失。其次，为防止希腊退出欧元区造成到其它外围经济体对欧元丧失信心，则欧元区必须加快其朝向金融财政一体化的步伐，其速度可能要超出大多数欧盟领导人的容忍。
to safeguard banks in portugal or spain from runs, european policymakers will have to set up some form of euro-wide deposit insurance. and to reassure investors in the sovereign-debt markets, there will have to be much quicker progress to some form of debt mutualisation among the single currency’s members. the europeans should have started work on these things during the lull in the crisis earlier this year. germany resisted that. now these changes must be done in a rush.
为了保护葡萄牙和西班牙的银行免受摧残，欧盟领导人还必须建立起覆盖整个欧元的存款保险。同时为了使主权债务市场上的投资者安心，欧盟还要更快一些在目前的单一货币成员中在债务多元化方面取得进展。欧盟本应在今年早些时候，这场危机暂缓之时做这些事情。但是德国却在阻挠。现在必须下重手了。
a vote to rock democracy’s cradle
一次将动摇民主的摇篮的选举
the greek election is in effect a referendum on whether the country will stay in the euro. it is not completely without hope. a new greek coalition which vowed to stick to the rescue deal would in fact gain some help from the rest of europe. at the same time, with the promise of a common banking backstop and some form of eurobonds, the euro would at last start to look as if it could survive and the dangers of contagion would fall away. and if greece were an isolated problem, it would be much easier to nurse slowly back to health.
希腊的大选实际上就是对该国是否留在欧元区的全民公投。也不是完全没有转机。其实上，号召坚持救助协议的希腊新联盟将会得到欧洲其它国家的些许援助。相应地，承诺将共同支持银行和发行某种形式的欧元债券，欧元最终将会显现出存活的迹象，蔓延的危险也会消失。如果希腊问题仅是个案，则帮助其恢复就容易的多了。
the financial re-engineering of europe is a prerequisite for the euro to survive. greece is bringing forward that moment of truth. and yet politicians, particularly in germany, have still to accept the logic, let alone explain it to voters. the prospect of a greek exit means they must begin to do so—and fast.
欧洲经济重整是维持欧元的先决条件。是希腊将欧元带到了这一关键时刻。然而政治家们，尤其是德国的政治家们，仍旧不接受这一逻辑，当然更别提向其选民解释了。希腊退出的前景意味着他们必须开始了---而且还要尽快。