韩磊曾经唱过《向天再借五百年》，恐怕对于每一个政客来说，权力的快感和成就生前身后名的诱惑都是无可抵挡的。而对于目前深陷连任困局的奥巴马来说，如果下一届无法连任，壮志未酬的失落怕是最令人无限落寞的。医改刚开始，经济也在复苏，但是美国人没有那么多的耐心。相比于来势汹汹的罗姆尼，奥巴马又该如何在夏洛特的民主党大会上拿出可行的日程表呢？如果奥巴马懂中文，他一定会学唱韩磊，对美国人民深情呼唤：再借给我四年吧亲~！
in denver four years ago, an inspiring presidential candidate announced that he would change america. barack obama promised to put aside partisan differences, restore hope to those without jobs, begin the process of saving the planet from global warming, and make america proud again.
四年前，美国丹佛，某位踌躇满志的总统候选人宣布他将改变美国。这位名叫巴拉克·奥巴马的候选人承诺将搁置党派分歧，重铸失业者信心，启动解决全球气候变暖进程，恢复美利坚荣光。
next week mr obama will address his fellow democrats at their convention in charlotte, north carolina, with little of this hopeful agenda completed. three million more americans are out of work than four years ago, and the national debt is $5 trillion bigger. partisan gridlock is worse than ever: health-care reform, a genuinely impressive achievement, has become a prime source of rancour. businessfolk are split over whether he dislikes capitalism or is merely indifferent to it. his global-warming efforts have evaporated. america’s standing in the muslim world is no higher than it was under george w. bush, iran remains dangerous, russia and china are still prickly despite the promised resets, and the prison in guantánamo remains open.
下周奥巴马将和他的民主党同志在北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市召开民主党大会，而到那时，他的竞选承诺依旧很难实现。四年过去了，美国的失业者人增长300万；政府债务多出5万亿美元之巨；驴象僵局比之前更加恶劣；而唯一令人印象深刻的成就——医疗改革，也已惹得民怨沸腾；商界人士对奥巴马究竟是厌恶资本主义还是仅仅对这一制度不感兴趣仍然拿不定主意；阻止全球气候变暖已然没有了效果；美国在穆斯林世界的地位比布什时代还要低；伊朗依旧危险；俄罗斯与中国虽然有所改变，但仍然棘手；关塔那摩监狱的大门依旧敞开着。
so far, so underwhelming
岁月沉寂，现世平庸
the defence of mr obama’s record comes down to one phrase: it could all have been a lot worse. he inherited an economy in free fall thanks to the banking crash and the fiscal profligacy that occurred under his predecessor; his stimulus measures and his saving of detroit carmakers helped avert a second depression; overall, he deserves decent if patchy grades on the economy (see article). confronted by obstructionist republicans in congress, he did well to get anything through at all. abroad he has sensibly recalibrated american foreign policy. and there have been individual triumphs, such as the killing of osama bin laden.
奥巴马的执政记录可以一言以辩之：不是他，情况会更糟。他从前任手中接过来的是一个自由落体式的经济，银行倒闭、财政亏空，这些都是在小布什任期内发生的；他对底特律汽车制造商的刺激政策和出手相助，避免了二次大萧条的出现；总的来说，以这样的经济成绩来看，他做得差强人意。面对国会里面跟他作对的共和党人，他表现出色，拿到了他想拿到的结果；在国际事务上，他重新校定了美国的对外政策。奥巴马也取得了一些外交成果，比如击毙本·拉登。
but this does not amount to a compelling case for re-election, in the view of either this paper or the american people. more than 60% of voters believe their country to be on the wrong track. mr obama’s approval ratings are well under 50%; almost two-thirds of voters are unimpressed (however harshly) by how he has handled the economy. worn down by the difficulties of office, the great reformer has become a cautious man, surrounded by an insular group of advisers. the candidate who promised bold solutions to the country’s gravest problems turned into the president who failed even to back his own commission’s plans for cutting the deficit.
但想要连任，仅有这些还不够令人信服——这不仅是本报的观点，也是美国民众的看法。60%以上的选民认为美国已经偏离了正确的轨道。奥巴马目前的支持率远低于50%；有三分之二的选民认为他处理经济的方式不当（尽管此话有些刻薄）。由于执政历程的坎坷，这位伟大的改革家已经变得谨小慎微，他身边的顾问又保守狭隘。当年的那位候选人曾承诺，要果敢地解决美国最为严重的一些问题；可当他成为总统之后，甚至无法为自己的委员会削减赤字的方案提供支持。
were he facing a more charismatic candidate than mitt romney or a less extremist bunch than the republicans, mr obama would already be staring at defeat. the fact that the president has had to “go negative” so early and so relentlessly shows how badly he needs the election to be about mr romney’s weaknesses rather than his own achievements. a man who four years ago epitomised hope will arrive in charlotte with a campaign that thus far has been about invoking fear.
作为总统候选人，米特·罗姆尼魅力不够；作为政治派别，共和党又相对极端，否则奥巴马败局早已注定。奥巴马被迫这么早、这么无情地“采取了消极策略”，这说明他急需让民众在这场竞选中去关注罗姆尼的弱点，而不是去关注他本人的政绩。四年前，奥巴马曾是希望的化身；四年后的今天，他将抵达夏洛特市，未来的竞选之路异常坎坷。
mr obama must offer more than this, for three reasons. first, a negative campaign may well fail. the republicans are a rum bunch with a wooden leader; but mr romney’s record as an executive and governor is impressive, and his running-mate, paul ryan, is a fount of bold ideas. mr obama’s strategy of blaming everything on republican obstructionism will strike many voters as demeaning.
奥巴马要做的还有很多，原因有三。其一，消极竞选策略可能会失败。共和党是个古怪的政治群体，其领导人也多显木讷。但是罗姆尼从商和执政的履历可圈可点，而他的竞选搭档保罗·瑞恩勇谋勇谋兼备。如果奥巴马把一切责任都推给共和党人，会让选民觉得总统有掉价之嫌。
second, even if negative campaigning works, a re-elected mr obama will need the strength that comes from a convincing agenda. otherwise the republicans, who will control the house and possibly the senate too, will make mincemeat of him. and, third, it is not just mr obama who needs a plan. america does too. its finances and its government require a drastic overhaul. surely this charismatic, thoughtful man has more ideas about what must be done than he has so far let on?
其二，即使消极竞选奏效，连任的奥巴马也需要交出一份令人信服的议程表。否则届时可能拿下参众两院的共和党人会把他批得体无完肤。其三，需要拿出方案的不仅仅是奥巴马本人，还有整个美国。从经济到政府，美国都需要进行大刀阔斧的改革。至于该如何做，想必这位魅力超凡、心思缜密的总统另有良策吧？
a tempting option will be to galvanise his party base, with talk of more health reform and threats of higher taxes on business and the rich. rather than redesigning government, he could suck up to the public-sector unions by promising that jobs will not be cut. rather than cutting entitlement programmes, he could reassure the elderly that america can actually afford them.
他面临着一个诱人的选择：可以进一步去宣传医疗改革，并声称要加大对商业和富人的征税力度，借此来巩固民主党的党派基础。倘要取悦公共部门工会，奥巴马不必重组政府，他只需承诺不会减少工作岗位即可；他可以安抚老年人美国政府完全养得起他们，就不必去削减福利项目。
such an approach would fit the pattern of too much of his presidency, and his campaign so far; but it would do america a disservice, and it might not help mr obama either. his victory in 2008 relied on reaching beyond the groups that traditionally vote democratic and bringing in young voters and wealthier whites. many of them are centrists who are suspicious of mr romney, but since they have to foot the bill for government profligacy, they will not vote for a president who promises more of the same.
迄今为止，这种方式符合奥巴马大多数时的执政风格，也符合他的竞选风格；但这么做对美国有害，也对奥巴马无益。2008年他获胜的原因在于他一方面赢得了民主党传统选民的支持，另一方面他又拿下了年轻选民和更为富有的白人选民的选票。如今，这些选民中很多人都在怀疑罗姆尼是个中间派，但如果奥巴马政府继续大手大脚，不做出改变的话，他们将不会投票给他。
reach for the radical centre
对面的中间派看过来
appealing to the centre is not easy for mr obama. his allies on the left are powerful and, in a country so polarised, the middle ground can be a dangerous place. but there are plenty of things that many on both sides of the political aisle could agree on, including tax and immigration reform, investment in schools and aid to businesses that are creating jobs. crucially, mr obama could explain how he intends to cut the still-soaring debt without pretending that taxing only the rich will help in any meaningful way.
讨好中间派对于奥巴马来说并非易事。他在左派的盟友势力庞大，而在一个两极分化如此严重的国家，采取中间立场可能会十分危险。不过政界左右两派能够在很多方面达成共识，包括税收和移民改革、教育投资以及对创造工作岗位的企业提供援助等等。关键在于奥巴马应当解释一下他打算如何去削减居高不下的债务，他不能再鼓吹只向富人征税对美国有什么好处了。
mr obama has a strong belief in social justice. it drove his health-care reform. but he needs to distinguish between a creditable desire to help the weak and a dangerous preference for the public over the private sector. the jobs that poor americans need will be created by companies. smothering firms in red tape is not the way to help them; mr obama should vow to stop adding to it, and to start cutting some of it away. the party faithful in charlotte might not like centrist ideas much. but they would appeal to the voters mr obama needs to win over and, should he be re-elected, they will strengthen him in his dealings with the republicans in congress.
奥巴马在社会公平方面有着坚定的信念，这是他推动医疗改革的动力所在。但他需要搞清楚：帮助弱者的良好愿望并不等于让公共部门压过私营部门——这种偏爱很危险。为需要就业的美国穷人创造岗位正是各大公司。用繁文缛节来限制公司发展对其有害无益；奥巴马应当承诺不再继续进行此类限制，并开始在这方面进行精简。夏洛特市那些忠诚的民主党人可能对中间派的理念并没有太多好感，但仍然会拉拢这些选民，因为奥巴马需要赢得他们的支持。而且如果奥巴马顺利连任，今后在国会里与共和党人周旋时，这些中间派会助他一臂之力。
incumbents tend to win presidential elections, but second-term presidents tend to be disappointing. mr obama’s first-term record suggests that, if re-elected, he could be the lamest of ducks. that’s why he needs a good answer to the big question: just what would you do with another four years?
现任总统往往更容易赢得选举，但连任后通常表现欠佳。如果连任，奥巴马可能是历届总统中最惨的“跛脚鸭”，这从他的第一任期履历可见一斑。因此，他需要对一个重大问题给出令人满意的答复：再给你四年又如何？
【译者附注】
1. epitomise：[i'pitəmaiz]vt. 象征；体现；代表（等于epitomize）
2. red tape：繁文缛节，官样文章
3.奥巴马医改内容：
一、保证选择性。要让每个美国人都能选择自己的医疗保险计划和医生。政府可能建立公立医疗保险机构，参与医疗保险行业的竞争。
二、控制成本。减少医疗资源浪费、欺诈行为和高额的管理费用，减少不必要的医疗检查和服务及其他只增加成本不改善医疗作用的无效行为。
三、保护家庭财政健康。必须减少医疗保险费用和美国企业、个人承担的其他医疗支出。保证人们在患重病时不会破产。
四、在预防疾病和保健方面增加投入。减少肥胖、缺乏运动、吸烟等现象，增加预防性治疗服务。
五、医疗保险的可流动性。人们的医疗保险不能再锁定在一个就业岗位上。
六、全民普遍原则。每个美国人都应享受医疗保险。
七、改善患者安全，提高医疗服务质量。
文章来源：由译言网关照翻译