WSJA(10/15) China Congress Heralds A Generational Shift 中国第五代领导人即将初露端倪
The leadership turnover expected from this week's Communist Party Congress is likely to demonstrate China's shift toward a new breed of elite officials: those familiar with economics and business who appreciate a little more than their predecessors the impact of China's growing links with the outside world.
本周中共全国代表大会上即将出现的领导层人事变动有望向世人证实，中国正在将权力逐步移交给新一代精英──那些懂经济、懂商务、比其前任更注重与外部世界联系的官员。
The party's 17th National Congress, which starts today and ends on Sunday, is expected to elevate members of a younger, more broadly educated cohort into senior party positions, and lead to similar changes in government positions around the country. The shift will enable the younger generation to begin having more influence on official thinking and policy making, and could transform -- although in a gradual fashion -- the way Chinese officialdom deals with foreign businesses, analysts say.
定于周一开幕、周日结束的中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会预计会提拔一批更年轻、接受过更广泛教育的干部担任党的高级领导职务，并促进全国各地政府部门也产生类似的转变。分析师称，这种变化将促使年轻一代领导人开始在出谋划策和制定政策过程中发挥更大影响力，并有望改变中国政府部门同海外企业打交道的方式，尽管这种转变可能是一个渐进的过程。
The congress, which happens twice a decade, will ratify a new slate for the party's most important ruling bodies, including the Political Bureau, or Politburo, with about two dozen members who meet monthly, and its ultra-powerful Standing Committee, which currently comprises the eight most senior men in the leadership. The congress will also endorse a broad political program that will define its rule for the next five years. It is expected to emphasize current party chief Hu Jintao's effort to push more balanced development for China to address the widening wealth gap and side effects of breakneck economic growth.
中国共产党全国代表大会每五年举行一次，此次会议将批准政治局和政治局常委新人选。政治局是中国共产党最重要的领导机构，由二十几位委员组成，每月举行一次例会。政治局中拥有超级权威的则是目前由八名常委组成的常务委员会。此次大会还将批准一个确定今后五年主要任务的政治报告。现任党的总书记胡锦涛提出的推动中国实现更加均衡的发展，解决贫富差距扩大和经济高速发展带来的不良影响的方针预计会在报告中得到进一步的强调。
Many of China's current generation of top leaders, in their 60s, were trained as engineers and had their formative years during the decades before China ended its international isolation and embarked on market-oriented economic reforms in 1978. By contrast, many in the next generation, in their 50s, are trained in law or economics, and largely came of age in the 1980s during the reform era, which was begun by then paramount leader Deng Xiaoping after the chaotic Cultural Revolution.
中国目前一代的领导人中许多都在60岁以上，多为工程师出身，是在1978年中国结束封闭状态，开始实行对外开放前成长起来的。与他们不同的是，新一代领导人多在50多岁，学的多是法律或经济，许多人都是在改革开放后的80年代走上工作岗位的。
Two of the most prominent members of the younger cohort, which collectively is known as China's 'fifth generation' of leaders, are Xi Jinping, now the top party official in Shanghai, and Li Keqiang, the party chief of Liaoning, an industrial province in the northeast. Messrs. Xi and Li, both of whom hold law degrees, are expected to be elevated this week to the Standing Committee, about half of whose members are expected to change. One of the two men later may be tapped to replace party chief Mr. Hu when his tenure ends, which is expected in 2012.
在这批所谓的“第五代”领导人中，两位最重要的人物是现任上海市市委书记习近平和东北工业大省辽宁省省委书记李克强。二人都拥有法律学位，预计将在此次大会上跻身政治局常委──本次会议可能要更换一半的政治局常委。这两人中的一人或许将在2012年胡锦涛的任期结束后接替胡的位置。
Mr. Hu isn't expected to designate his successor this week, however, and will likely continue to preside over a standing committee that rules by consensus, rather than by the dictates of a single strong leader as in much of China's recent past.
不过，预计胡锦涛不会在本周的会议上指定他的接班人，而会继续采用依靠政治局常委多数意见决策的方式，避免出现一言堂的局面。
Younger leaders are, like their predecessors, all loyal party members who are unlikely to push any radical shift in policy. Still, the new generation's experience in law and other social sciences fits a leadership that is working to bolster the political and financial systems to match the country's booming economy, just as the previous generation's background, centered on the hard sciences, in many ways reflected their era's preoccupation with building dams, bridges and other infrastructure.
同他们的前辈一样，年轻一代领导人也都是坚定的共产党员，不太可能推进激进的政策变革。不过，中国领导层目前的任务应是完善政治和金融体制，使之与高速增长的中国经济相匹配，在这一点上，新一代领导人在法律和其他社会科学方面的经历恰恰与之相吻合。而前一代领导人将工作重点主要放在了建设大坝、桥梁和其他基础设施上，这也是他们多具有理工科背景的一种反映。
The turnover will happen over the coming months at all levels of party and government, including provincial and other regional posts. In practical terms, the rise of the new generation could make it slightly easier for foreign executives to move along projects or gain access to senior officials, since the younger leaders better understand business and often have more experience dealing with foreigners. Some of the rising officials have spent significant time -- up to several years -- working or studying in the U.S. or elsewhere abroad, unlike most of the current top leaders.
今后几个月中，各级党和政府部门中的官员可能都会出现更迭，其中包括省部级和地区一级的领导职位。从现实角度看，新一代领导人的崛起可能会让外资企业高管推进项目或是同政府高级官员的接触变得稍微容易一些，因为年轻一代领导人对企业更加了解，在同外国人打交道方面也更有经验。同目前大多数高层领导不同的是，新一代领导中有些曾在美国或其他国家长期工作或学习过，有的甚至长达几年时间。
Most of those at the leadership's very top, for now, will still be from the older generation, limiting the influence of these younger officials. The newcomers may be in subsidiary jobs like vice-governors or vice-ministers, or leading advisors in government or government-affiliated think tanks.
目前，领导层中的最高职位大多仍将由上一代人担任，这会限制那些年轻官员的影响力。不少新一代领导人都将担任副职，如副省长、副部长，或政府及政府下属研究机构的首席顾问，等等。
Still, they could be positioned for even more senior jobs later on. 'Western-educated political elites in China are likely to become even more prominent as the transition of power to the next generation takes place in about a decade,' Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution in the U.S., wrote in a paper.
不过，他们会逐步开始担任更高级的职务。美国布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)中国问题专家李成在一篇文章中写道，随着在今后十年左右的时间里权力逐步向下一代人过渡，接受过西方教育的中国政治精英可能会发挥更重要的作用。
Mr. Xi, Shanghai's party secretary and a possible future contender to become president, previously led Zhejiang, another booming eastern province where he was praised for market-friendly policies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has described him as 'the kind of guy who knows how to get over the goal line.' As Liaoning party secretary, Mr. Li has been credited with turning around what used to be a rustbelt province by welcoming investments from Japan and South Korea.
上海市委书记习近平此前曾担任另一个富裕省份浙江省的省委书记，并因实行有利于市场经济的政策而广受赞誉。美国财政部长亨利•鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)曾将习近平描述为“知道如何实现目标的人。” 而辽宁省委书记李克强的政绩则是通过吸引日本和韩国投资，推动了这个没落工业大省的振兴。
Because of China's growing global stature, the international community has been demanding its government play a more active role in international diplomacy. In recent weeks, China has faced pressure to weigh in on Myanmar, though China's stance has been to claim it doesn't usually intervene in other country's domestic politics.
由于中国的国际地位不断提升，国际社会也要求中国政府能在国际外交中发挥更积极的作用。近几周来，中国在缅甸问题上一直面临压力，尽管中国的立场一直是宣称不干涉别国的国内政治。
But analysts say that position will change with the influx of more foreign-trained officials. 'China's foreign policy, especially when the fifth generation leaders begin to take over, would be more open, accommodative and sophisticated, not just because of the leaders' enriched international experiences, but because China has irrevocably integrated [itself] in the current international system, a system that is based on the global market economy and led by democracies,' says Jing Huang, another China expert at the Brookings Institution.
但分析师们表示，随着越来越多在国外接受过教育的官员走上领导岗位，这种立场也将发生变化。布鲁金斯学会另一位中国问题专家黄靖称，在第五代领导人开始掌权后，中国的对外政策将会更加开放、宽松和老练，这不仅仅是因为这些领导人具有丰富的国际经验，而且是因为中国已经不可逆转地融合到了目前的国际体系中，这是一种基于全球市场经济，以民主为主导的体系