WHEN MOST LABOUR was agricultural, people generally toiled in the fields until they dropped. The idea of formal retirement did not become feasible until work moved from farms to factories. In 1889 Otto von Bismarck famously introduced the world’s first (modest) pension scheme in Germany. In the 20th century, when universal suffrage became widespread, a period of retirement after work was seen as a mark of a civilised social democracy.
当绝大多数劳动力都在干农活的时代，人们通常会在田间地头耕作到生命最后一刻。正式退休这样的想法根本不具有可行性，这一点直到劳动力脱离农田走入工厂才有了改变。1889年，俾斯麦在德国推出了名垂青史的世界上首个（不完全）退休金机制。进入20世纪后，随着普选制度的不断普及，在职业生涯之后经历一个退休期逐渐成为文明社会民主的一大特征。 After the second world war pension provision increased markedly, but the number of elderly people was still quite small (see chart). In the 1970s and 1980s caring for them seemed easily affordable. Many countries even reduced their retirement ages. 二战以后，退休金供给增长显著，而老龄人口数量依旧很小（见图）。在20世纪七八十年代，照顾老龄人口似乎并不是什么难题。许多国家甚至降低了退休年龄。 The demographic picture looks different now that the baby-boomers are starting to retire. In 1950 there were 7.2 people aged 20-64 for every person of 65 and more in the OECD. By 1980 the ratio had dropped to 5.1. Now it is around 4.1, and by 2050 it will be just 2.1. In short, every couple will be supporting a pensioner. 而如今，随着婴儿潮一代开始进入退休年龄，人口图景也发生了变化。1950年，经合组织国家每一位65岁及以上老人对应着7.2个年龄在20—64岁之间的人口。如今这一数字为4.1，到2050年，将下降至只有2.1。简单讲，到时候每两个年轻人就要供养一位退休者。 Europe and Japan are facing the biggest problems. The average dependency ratio in the European Union is already down to 3.5, and is heading for 1.8 by 2050. In Italy it is forecast to be nearly 1.5 and in Germany nearly 1.6 by then. Japan is on track for a startling 1.2. Since the average pensioner currently draws a total of about 60% of median earnings, from government and private sources, the system is likely to become unaffordable. In a sense, it does not matter how the benefits are paid for. If they are unfunded, they come from workers’ taxes; if funded, they come from investment income. But the income has to be generated by someone. 问题最严重的是欧洲和日本。欧盟平均赡养比已经降至3.5， 2050年将进一步下降为1.8，其中意大利将下降至1.5，德国则为1.6。更悲惨的是日本，将面临1.2的赡养比。平均而言，每位退休者（从政府和私人渠道）获得的退休金是中位收入的60%，因此退休金体系很可能将难以为继。在某种意义上说，退休金如何给付是无关紧要的。如果是非基金型退休金，那么钱来自工作人口所缴纳的税金；如果是基金型，那么钱来自投资收益。但无论如何必须有人出这笔钱。 There are ways of reducing the burden. The current generation of workers could save more now. If they put more money into funded pension schemes, the extra saving might encourage more investment and thus boost economic growth. A wealthier society would find it easier to afford paying pensions. Countries with PAYG schemes could raise taxes now, reducing the deficit and thus the debt burden on the younger generations. 减轻负担的方法不少。当前工作人口可以更多地储蓄。如果他们将更多的钱存入基金型退休金计划，那么储蓄的增加可能会鼓励更多的投资，从而刺激经济增长。社会财富的积累能提高退休金担负能力。采用现收现付制的国家可以在现在增税削减赤字，从而减轻年轻一代身上的债务负担。 We want it now 现在就要 But more savings or higher taxation now would require those currently at work to defer consumption. They may not be willing to do so. And given the weakness of developed economies in the wake of the financial crisis, governments may not want to see consumption go down in the immediate future. 但更高的储蓄和税收意味着当前工作人口必须延迟消费。他们未必愿意这样做。而发达经济体由于受金融危机影响而疲软不堪，因此政府也未必愿意在近期看到消费下降。 In the OECD public spending on pensions benefits has been growing faster than national output, rising from 6.1% of GDP in 1990 to 7% in 2007. It is forecast to reach 11.4% of GDP by 2050. Those forecasts already take into account the planned rise in retirement ages and a likely drop in replacement ratios and thus assume that voters will approve of pension reform even as the baby-boomers become a potentially powerful voting block of retired people. 经合组织各国的退休金公共支出增长速度要快于国民产出，占GDP的比重1990为6.1%，到2007年上升至7%。预计到2050年将达到11.4%。该预计已经考虑了计划中的推迟退休年龄政策和人口替换率可能下降的情况，所以尽管婴儿潮一代在退休后会成为可能成为反对者，仍可假设选民会批准退休金改革。 But that assumption may not be safe. Turnout in elections tends to be higher among the elderly than among the young. As Neil Howe and Richard Jackson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, have written: “In the 2020s young people in developed countries will have the future on their side. Elders will have the votes on theirs.” 但这一假设并不那么笃定。在选举中，大龄投票者的参与度总是要高于年轻人。华盛顿战略及国际研究中心（Centre for Strategic and International Studies）的尼尔•霍伊（Neil Howe）和理查德•杰克逊（Richard Jackson）写道：“21世纪20年代，发达国家的未来在年轻人手里，而选票在年长者手里。”