euro 2012
2012年欧锦赛
the next big thing
下一任天王
only four years ago, spain’s national football team were considered the great underachievers of the game. that changed in 2008, when they won the european championship, their first trophy for 44 years. now the thought is absurd. when the spanish swept aside italy by four goals to nil to retain their title in kiev on july 1st (pictured)， the list of overachievement spilled off the bottom of the page。
就在四年前，西班牙国家足球队被公认为是一支巨大的“潜力股”——实力不可小觑，临场发挥欠佳。直到2008年问鼎欧洲杯，夺下44年首冠之后，他们才成为了真正的王者。现在看来，“潜力股”的说法纯属无稽之谈。7月1日，当西班牙以四球横扫意大利，在基辅捧起2012欧锦赛冠军奖杯之时(见图)，有关他们是否超水平发挥的评论早已是铺天盖地。
no other country has won two european titles in a row, let alone carry off a world cup in between, as spain did in 2010. no one else has scored four goals in a european final. and putting four past an italian defence is a feat in itself (even if these italians had to play a man short for half an hour: a player was injured after the coach had made his three permitted substitutions). the last team to do so in an important tournament were brazil’s brilliant world cup winners of 1970, in that year’s final。
没有任何一支球队曾成功蝉联欧洲杯王者之座，期间，西班牙还于2010年捧回世界杯冠军，史无前例。四球入帐的记录也从未出现在欧洲杯决赛之中。面对意大利的这条防线，能够攻入四球本身就已经是一种能耐(尽管意大利在比赛后半个小时之内少一人应战，一名球员也因为主教练用完三个换人名额的原因必须带伤坚持)。上一次重大锦标赛上出现的如此壮举，还是由1970年世界杯冠军巴西队在决赛中完成。
in “la roja”， a history of spanish football published just before this year’s tournament jimmy burns says he “would like to believe that…the dynasty of la roja could last a decade or more。” that is still a tall order: rebuilding and renewing winning teams is as hard at international as at club level, and the spanish have not yet had to do it. eight players who appeared in kiev were also in the winning team of 2008. and defending the world cup will be especially difficult, given that the hosts in 2014 will be brazil, winners five times. but the spanish are already halfway to realising mr burns’s dream。
就在欧锦赛打响前哨，吉米·伯恩斯在他介绍西班牙足球史的新作《红色风暴》中提到，他“相信‘红色风暴’的王朝将会延续十年或更久。”这一说法却不免抬价过高：要想实现一支球队的重塑换血，无论对国家队还是俱乐部球队都同样困难重重，对于西班牙来说还没有到必须脱胎换骨的份上。八名在基辅帮助球队加冕冠军的球员也同样是2008年球队夺冠的大功臣。鉴于2014年世界杯将落户已五次捧起大力神杯的巴西，要想在世界杯的比赛当中也实现卫冕更是难上加难。但从目前来看，西班牙队已经顺利完成了伯恩斯所理想的半数指标。
but if the spanish have become europe’s footballing superpower, which country has inherited its old mantle of underachievement? with no claim to scientific accuracy, game theory presents four possible pretenders to the unwanted crown。
既然西班牙已然摇身变为欧洲的足球超级大国，那又是哪支欧洲球队将继承衣钵，成为了新的“潜力股”呢？尽管没有科学调查的精准性支撑，“博弈论”板块也总结出了四支最具潜质的球队，成为这个没人要的头衔的接班人。
start with the obvious, to an englishman, anyway. the english have won only one major tournament ever, the world cup on home soil in 1966 (see chart)， and have not even reached a semi-final since 1996 (again, at home). england has more people than spain, a bigger economy and a league of similar quality: shouldn’t the country that gave birth to the game have a team as good as spain’s? but as simon kuper and stefan szymanski pointed out in “why england lose” “england are a good team that does better than most”. they win matches (and tournaments) about as often (and as infrequently) as you would expect given the country's size, wealth and experience in international football. english fans at last seem to understand this. at euro 2012, in which england were deservedly knocked out by italy in the quarter-finals, the expectations of both press and public were roughly in line with the team’s capabilities。
还是先来看看最众望所归的英格兰吧。英格兰有史以来仅在本土作战的情况下，于1966年获得过一次世界冠军(如下图示)，而于1996年(仍守于本土应战)之后就从此止步半决赛。英格兰无论从人口数量还是经济实力都超出西班牙，英格兰超级联赛和西班牙甲级联赛的质量更是不相伯仲：一个现代足球的诞生地是否应该至少在战绩上不逊于西班牙？但在西蒙·库珀和史蒂芬？斯曼斯基的作品《英格兰为何是输家》中提到，“英格兰是一支优秀的球队，他们已经比大多数的球队都要出色了。”鉴于这个国家的大小、财富以及在国际赛场上的经验，他们所赢得比赛的频率(或稀有程度)已经基本符合人们的预期了。英格兰球迷似乎能够理解这一点。当英格兰于本届欧锦赛四分之一决赛中被意大利意料之中扫地出门的时候，媒体和公众对球队的预期和球队实力还是保持大致持平的。
a second candidate is turkey, a team that did not even qualify for euro 2012. twice in the past decade, in 2002 and 2008, when the turks reached the semi-finals of first the world cup and then the european championship, it seemed that a new power was on the rise: young, populous and football-mad. yet there has been precious little since。
紧随其后的是土耳其队。他们还没能于本届欧洲杯中晋级到小组赛中。在过去的十年中，土耳其的两次出征惊为天人——2002年打入世界杯半决赛，2008年跻身欧锦赛半决赛——似乎在那时，一支朝气蓬勃、富有冲劲的明日之星正在冉冉升起。但从那以后，灵光乍现的时刻便鲜有闻。
a third option is russia, whose only tournament victory came when the soviet union won the first european championship in 1960. the country has lots of people and plenty of rich men with money to spend on football (notably, on clubs in england) and some decent players. this time russia started the tournament strongly, beating the czech republic 4-1, but faded fast, losing to unfancied greece. perhaps things will change by 2018, when the russians are due to host the world cup. but don’t count on it。
第三个入选的是俄罗斯。他们唯一的锦标赛冠军史还要追朔到1960年以前苏联身份夺得的首魁。俄罗斯人口众多，愿意为足球事业砸钱的大亨富翁也不胜枚举(尤其舍得在英超的俱乐部花钱)，还培养出了一拨优秀的球员。俄罗斯在本届赛事初期强势出征，以4－1大胜捷克先声夺人，但很快颓势具现，随后便败北于昙花一现的希腊队。也许到了2018年俄罗斯举办世界杯之时，局势会有所改变，但仍须谨慎乐观，勿下重筹。
the last choice is the most surprising: germany. the germans, of course, are a mighty footballing force. for them anything less than a semi-final is a catastrophe. the trouble is that they haven’t gone on to win a tournament for a long time: 16 years, or eight competitions. meanwhile, france, italy and spain have all picked up world cups, european titles or both. the germans seemed to have a great chance this time, with a side full of fine, young players, until they were floored by two first-half italian goals in their semi-final. it is difficult to believe that this brilliant generation of germans will not be world or european champions, putting an end to years of disappointment. but at each tournament there can only be one winner. and for now, that winner always seems to be spain。
德国是最后，恐怕也是最意外的选择了。德意志战车必须是一支实力超群的球队。对于他们来说任何于半决赛之前即被淘汰的结果都将是灾难性的。问题在于，他们的冠军荒已经延续长达16年之久，换句话说，他们已与八届国际级大赛冠军失之交臂。而与此同时，法国、意大利和西班牙则同时或分别在世界杯和欧锦赛之中崭露头角、屡屡捧杯。德国队今年派出一班蓄势待发的年轻球员应战，看似赢面颇大，但最终还是在半决赛中，被意大利上半场的两粒入球送回老家。很难想像，有着这样一套球员班底的德国队，居然无法在世界和欧洲两大锦标赛中问鼎，并为多年来的遗憾画上句号。但每届大赛的冠军只能花落一家。就目前来看，西班牙似乎已经成为常胜将军了。