With the recent earthquake in Japan and the civil war in Libya, many investors expected gold to soar easily to $1,500. Experts said, however, that gold does not necessarily rise during wars or crises; it all depends on a series of factors including the economic context of the time.
随着近期日本发生大地震以及利比亚爆发内战,许多投资者期望金价疯涨,轻易攻克1500美元大关。但是专家说战乱或危机期 间，金价未必上涨;金价上涨与否取决于各种因 素,包括当时的经济背景。
“The generalization is, there is no generalization. When there is a catajstrophe1 people sell everything,” said Mark Leibovit，a chief market strategist for VRTrader. com. “I’m not banking on the disasters. When bad news hits, I’m afraid everything will drop,” he told Kitco News.
VRTrader.com首席市场策略师马克?莱博维 奇说规律就是没有规律。一场灾害发生后,人 们会抛售任何东西。”他在接受金拓新闻采访时 说我不会把宝压在灾难上，要是有什么坏消息 的话，恐怕所有的投资品种都会大跌。”
In a March 15 report, HSBC said, “Historically, estimates of drops in commodity demand due to natural disasters or other economy tend to be exaggerated. This was the case with previous earthquakes in Japan, attacks in the US on September 11, 2001, and the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean,”
在3月15日的一份报告中，汇丰说“从历史上 看，由于自然灾害或其他经济原因而引发的大宗 商品价格下滑预期，其反应总是过度的。以前的 日本大地震、911恐怖袭击以及2004年印度洋海晡 都无一例外。”
The yellow metal has become a new currency but that doesn’t prevent it from dropping when there is a disaster said Leibovit. “Basically since 2001 if you look at the stock market and gold they more or less track each other which is sort of interesting you’d think it would go the other way，” he said.
黄色金属已经成为了一种新的货币，但是在 灾难发生时，并不能防止其价格下滑。“自2001年 以来，金市和股市基本上或多或少都会相互追 踪——这种现象很有趣，因为大部分人会认为两 者应该呈现负相关性'他说。
Leibovit was surprised by gold’s performance during the crisis of October 1987 when stock markets around the world crashed. “Gold really didn’t do that well it had an initial pop but it really didn’t provide the hedge I wish I could tell you categorically that gold is a hedge, he said.
莱博维奇对1987年股市暴跌期间的金价走 势感到吃惊。“黄金的表现并不怎么好，黄金一开 始小幅上扬但是并没有提供很好的对冲性,我希 望我能告诉你’从分类上说，黄金是一种风险对冲 资产。，’他说。
The price of gold was pegged in London at $465.50 on Friday, Oct 16, explained technical analyst, Peter DeGraaf. “When the stock market dropped precipitously on (Black) Monday October 19, gold initially rose to $481.00, as investors sold stocks and searched for a “safe haven.” Surprisingly, the following day the price fell back to $464.30, as the need for cash became greater than the demand for a “safe haven.” When things settled down gold slowly rose, to end the year at $484.00,” said DeGraaf.
10月16日周五，伦敦盘黄金价格在465.5美元 左右企稳，技术分析师皮特?格拉夫解释说。‘‘而 在10月19日黑色星期一,股市突然直线下跌时，投 资人纷纷抛售股票，同时为资金寻求避险天堂，此 时，黄金暴涨至481美元。而让人大跌眼镜的是，第 二天黄金价格又回落至464.30美元，原因是人们 对资金的需求大于避险需求。当事件有所平息， 金价又开始缓慢回升，最终当年的收盘价报在484.00美元,"格拉夫说。
The conclusion drawn from gold's reaction to the market crash in 1987 is that the price of gold in the long term is dependent upon the integrity of the currencies that represent gold, rather than upon the political and economic events that dominate the news of the day, said DeGraaf.
从黄金价格对1987年股市暴跌的反应得出的结论是，黄金价格从长期而言依 靠的是体现黄金价格的货币的整体性，而不是当天发生的重大政治和经济事件。
George Gero, Senior Vice President Financial Consultant for RBC Wealth Management said it all depends on the type of crisis. Gero reflectsback on the Iraqi war. “The next day after the shock and awe bombing, oil dropped $40 bucks, and so did gold，” he said.
RBC财富管理高级副总裁兼金融咨询师乔治?罗格说，这要看危机是什么类型 的。罗格回顾了伊拉克战争开始时的情况。“第二天恐慌情绪爆发，石油大跌40美 元,黄金也下跌了40美元。”
He cited last summer’s debt crisis in Greece as another example, noting that gold dropped $50 dollars that day. “Everybody thought that the ECB and Greece were going to sell gold to finance the bailout2 which didn’t happen. So the behavior of gold during a crisis depends on the type of crisis and whether gold is needed for liquidity purposes to finance war or a bailout,” he said.
他又以去年夏天希腊爆发债务危机时的情况为例,当天黄金下跌50美元。“所 有人都认为ECB和希腊政府准备抛售黄金为援助方寒提供财政支持，而事实上，根 本没有发生这样的事情。所以危机期间的黄金表现取决于这场危机的类型,以及这 场危机是否需要黄金作为流动资产,来资助战争或是援助行动。”
Gero also looked back to the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981. “The media kept telling the world there was no assassination until the next afternoon. Gold acted totally contrary to what everyone thought because of the withholding of the actual assassination news. ”
罗格还回顾了 1981年埃及总统安瓦尔?萨达特遇刺身亡的事件，“直到第二天 下午前，媒体还一直对外声称根本没有刺杀这回事儿。金价的表现完全与人们预期 相反，正是因为对刺杀事件的隐瞒不发。”
So in the wake of the Libyan civil war and Japanese earthquake, why has gold not moved upwards? Gero replied, “The ultimate safe haven has turned out to be the liquidity and the safety of the United States and Canada." He said that gold has been so well publicized and so well -owned that people are now looking at silver as having more volatility left than gold.
所以就利比亚内战和日本大地震而言，为什么金价没有大幅上扬呢？罗格回答 道:“最终，这个原先的避险天堂成为了保障美国和加拿大流动性和安全性的工具。” 他说,黄金已经很大众化了,现在人们更青睐白银，因为其上涨空间比黄金大得多。
Jeff Christian, Managing Director of New York based commodities research firm, CPM Group said, “We have always been kind of snotty about this what we said is that those political events that are important to gold are important to gold, and those that are not.”
—家位于纽约的商品研究所CPM主管杰夫?克里斯琴说：“我们往往对基本面 事件心存傲慢，要说那些政治事件对黄金很重要，那么就是重要的，要说不重要，那 也就不重要了。”
For Christian, a pivotal event occurred during the Iran-lraq war in 1987 when Iraq attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Bahrain. The Kuwaiti government eventually went to the US government asking for protection of their oil tankers, said Christian. The US ultimately established a massive military presence in the Persian Gulf and most, himself included, expected this to be bullish3 for gold, said Christian. To the surprise of most, the price of gold fell.
对克里斯琴而言，在1987年两伊战争期间发生了一粧重大事件，当时伊拉克攻 击了科威特位于巴林附近的石油槽罐。科威特政府最终向美国政府求救，保护其储 油罐,克里斯琴说。美国最终在波斯湾地区开展了大规模军事行动,和大部分人一 样，包括他自己在内都认为此次事件应该使黄金看涨。但是让大多数人震惊的是， 金价居然下跌了。
“We called some of our clients in the Persian Gulf, in Kuwait and said, “why aren’t you guys buying gold?” And they said, “our problem is solved from our perspective the US navy sailing into Persian Gulf, represents a massive reduction in political and military risk,” he said.
克里斯琴说:“我们联系了我们在波斯湾地区和科威特的客户,我们问他们，为 什么你们没有买黄金？他们说，在我们看来,美国海军驶入波斯湾的那一刻起，我们 的问题已经解决了。这意味着政治和军事风险大大降低了。”
Christian also referred to 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. This precipitated the two-month-long undeclared Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom and resulted in the defeat and withdrawal of the Argentine forces.
克里斯琴还指出1%2年阿根廷人侵福克兰群岛事件。这场耗时2个月之长的持 久战并未得到阿根廷和英国的宣战，结果是阿根廷军队失败并且撤军。
“There were people in the gold market who said, ‘why is gold not responding to this? and we said, 4because it is Argentina over Britainin the South Atlantic in the Falkland islands which do not produce gold,” he said.
“金市中有不少人说，为什么黄金为对此次事件作出反应？ ”我们也这样说，“因 为这是阿根廷在南太平洋对英国的作战，弗兰克群岛不出产黄金，”克里斯琴说。
Christian said that Chile could go to war with Peru again and it probably wouldn’t really affect the price of gold because it is not central to the gold market. “If something happened in a place like Pakistan versus India where you have two people who are very much gold and silver oriented then you probably would see a reaction.”
克里斯琴说，智利可能再次向秘鲁开战,但是这不会真正影响黄金的价格，因 为这两个国家在黄金市场上都不处在举足轻重的地位。“如果像在巴基斯坦和印度 这种地方发生战争，两国人民均持有大量黄金和白银，这时你就会看到你要的反应
了。”
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Invest ors, said gold will go up if there is a prolonged war regardless of the country. “If it is under siege4 for a long time that country’s currency gets destroyed, so gold in that country’s currency will take off. The country must raise money through taxes or issued bonds to fund the conflict. A quick, slam bam, thank you M’am is not really a sustainable reason for gold to rally，” he said.
美国全球投资人CEO，弗兰克?福尔摩斯说，无论战争发生在哪个国家，黄金都 可能因为战事的况日持久而走高。“长期处于战火煎熬的国家，该国的货币会遭到 毁灭性打击’之后黄金将取代该国货币。国家必须通过税收或是发放债券筹措资 金，以此为冲突事件提供资金支持。突发性、偶发性事件不会成为金价持续上涨的 理由”,他说。
Like Christian, Holmes was also expecting gold to spike during Operation Desert Storm. “That was a factor that surprised me and that is when I started doing a lot of research and looking at that fear trade,” said Holmes.
和克里斯琴一样，福尔摩斯在沙漠风暴期间也认为黄金会大幅上涨。“那是一 个使我吃惊的因素，而那也是我做了大量研究并对恐慌性交易判研后的结论”，福 尔摩狐
The “fear trade” according to Holmes, is driven by negative real interest rates 一where inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate — and deficit spending. Whenever you have negative real interest rates coupled with5 increased deficit spending, gold tends to rise in that country’s currency, he said.
据福尔摩斯说“恐慌性交易”就是因负利率(当通胀率大于名义利率时)和赤字 开支引发的交易。当一个国家发生负利率，同时出现赤字开支的时候,以该国币种 计价的黄金必然出现上涨。
When examining the recent earthquake in Japan, Holmes said the impact on gold may not be felt short-term but long-term it could be bullish. The $500 billion needed to be spent in Japan will inevitably be good news for gold, said Holmes. “We are going to see some unique social spending on housing which will put big demand on all commodities,” he said.
在评估近期日本大地震将会造成的影响时，福尔摩斯说，可能短期不会对金价 造成影响，但是从长期而言必定上涨。日本大约需要花费5_乙美元，这对黄金无 疑是好消息。“我们会看到日本会在住宅方面投入社会花销，这将对所有商品构成 庞大的需求'他说。