AS THE developed-world economy tries to gain momentum, it faces a persistent headwind. The oil price remains stubbornly over $100 a barrel, acting like a tax on Western consumers. Some blame the high price on evil speculators—Barack Obama unveiled plans to increase penalties for market manipulation on April 17th. But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.
正当发达国家的经济试图加快发展时，迎面却是一阵经久不息的顶头风。油价高企，每桶价格超过100美元，西方消费者负担甚重。有人将高油价归咎于奸诈的投机商（巴拉克•奥巴马在4月17日公布了计划，要加重对市场操纵行为的处罚）。不过还有一个更简单的解释：石油供应跟不上日益增长的需求。 The concept of peak oil—the idea that global crude production may be at, or close to, its limit—is far from universally accepted. One leading asset manager talked recently of the world being “awash with energy” because of the exploitation of American shale gas. Nevertheless, oil is still the main fuel for cars and trucks. And crude output (as opposed to alternatives such as biofuels and liquids made from gas) has been flat since 2005. 石油峰值，即全球原油产量可能已经达到或接近极限，这个概念远未被世人普遍认同。近日一家知名资产管理公司谈到，由于美国的页岩气已被开发使用，如今世界简直是“能源过剩”。不过，石油仍然是汽车和卡车的主要燃料。而原油产量自2005年以来并没有增加（其替代品如生物燃料、液化天然气则相反）。 A number of countries (including Britain, Egypt and Indonesia) have turned from net oil exporters into importers in recent years. And although rich countries have curbed their energy-guzzling a little, demand continues to surge in emerging markets. 近几年，包括英国、埃及和印度尼西亚在内的许多国家已从石油净出口国变成进口国。而尽管发达国家大肆挥霍能源的行为已稍有收敛，新兴市场对能源的需求仍继续急剧上升。 This has left the oil market very vulnerable to temporary supply disruptions, such as the war in Libya. Speaking at a conference in Dublin this week, organised by the Institute of International and European Affairs and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Chris Skrebowski, a consulting editor of Petroleum Review, argued that spare capacity in the oil market could be eroded by 2015. 这令石油市场特别容易因短暂供应中断而受到影响，如利比亚战争（所引起的供应中断）。本周，一个由国际与欧洲事务研究院及石油及天然气峰值研究协会组织的会议在都柏林召开。《石油评论》的顾问编辑Chris Skrebowski在会议上发言，他认为到2015年石油市场的闲置产能可能就会耗尽。 The peak-oil concept was devised by the late M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted in 1956 that oil output in the lower 48 states of America would peak by around 1970. At the conference Michael Kumhof, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, presented the findings of a forthcoming working paper which showed that adding the idea of a “Hubbert peak” to energy production greatly improved the ability of a model to forecast oil prices. Based on an expected 0.9% annual increase in production over the next decade, the model predicts that real oil prices will nearly double over the same period. 石油峰值这个概念是已故的M. King Hubbert提出的，他曾在1956年预言美国48个州（除阿拉斯加和夏威夷外）的石油产量将在1970年左右达到峰值，后来预言应验了。在会议上，国际货币基金组织的一位经济学家Michael Kumhof展示了一份即将发表的工作论文中的一些调查结果。这些结果表明，在能源生产（的模型）里融入Hubbert峰值的概念将会大大提高一个油价预测模型的预测准确度。未来十年石油的年产量预计将会提高0.9%，据此，这个模型预测同期实际的石油价格将会增加近一倍。 The economic damage caused by such a rise is predicted to be modest, perhaps 0.2% of global GDP a year. In the past changes in oil prices have had a limited long-term impact, since any losses to oil importers are matched by gains by oil exporters. To the extent that high oil prices played a role in the recessions of the early 1980s and 2008-09, the main reason is that oil-producing countries tend to have a lower marginal propensity to consume their income, denting global demand. 这样的油价上涨预计不会为经济带来很大的影响，可能只会使全球GDP每年下降0.2%。过去，油价变动对经济的长期影响都十分有限，因为石油进口国所有的损失都会被石油出口国的收益所抵消。如果说高油价对二十世纪八十年代初及2008年至2009年对经济有什么影响的话，主要是因为石油生产国的边际消费倾向往往较低，因此全球需求有所下降。 Nevertheless, Mr Kumhof worries that if oil prices are high enough, the economic impact might increase substantially. On the most extreme assumptions, it could be 2% a year. 不过，Kumhof 担心若油价太高，经济受到的影响可能会越来越严重。在最极端的假设下，全球GDP可能会每年下降2%。 Even if the world can find more oil—in the Arctic or tar sands, say—the longer-term question is whether the era of “cheap energy” is over and how the world can adjust if it is. Developed economies are built on easy access to cheap energy, importing goods that are transported from around the world, with consumers driving many miles to work in air-conditioned offices and then flying off to sunny climes for their annual holidays. Persistently high oil prices would clearly lead to substitution (electric cars, natural-gas-powered trucks) but the transition costs could be significant. 即便世界各国能够找到更多石油（比如在北极或焦油砂中），更长远的问题是：“廉价能源时代”是否已一去不返？若是，那各国又能如何应对？能够轻易获得廉价能源和从世界各地进口商品是发达国家经济的基础，这些国家的消费者每天长途驱车到有空调的办公室上班，每逢年假就飞到阳光明媚、气候宜人的地方度假。显然，油价高企会令人们转而使用其他能源（电动车、天然气卡车），但这种改变的代价可能十分巨大。 Furthermore some potential substitutes for, or new sources of, oil (such as biofuels and tar sands) are a lot less efficient, in the sense that they require significant amounts of energy simply to produce. To the extent that this equation (energy return on energy invested, or EROI) is deteriorating, that must surely have an effect on economic growth. 再说，可能替代石油的一些能源（如生物燃料），又或是新的石油资源（如焦油砂，光是生产它们就要消耗大量能源；在这个意义上，这些能源的利用率远比现在的低。如果能源投资回报率（回报的能源除以投入的能源，即EROI）下降，经济发展一定会因此受到影响。 “What is the minimum EROI that a modern industrial society must have for its energy system for that society to survive?” ask Carey King and Charles Hall in a recent paper*. The academics’ answer: “Complex societies need a high EROI built on a large primary energy base.” “在一个现代工业社会中，其能源系统的EROI必须高于哪个值这个社会才能继续发展？”Carey King和Charles Hall在最近的一篇论文中提出了这个问题。学术界的回答是：“结构复杂的社会要有很高的EROI值，而且前提是要有大量一次能源。” This issue is not much considered by mainstream economists, who are too busy focusing on monetary policy, the impact of fiscal austerity or the need for labour-market reforms. But just as the industrial revolution was built on coal, the post-second-world-war economy was built on cheap oil. There will surely be a significant impact if it has gone for good. 主流经济学家并不怎么关注这个问题，他们只顾思考货币政策、财政紧缩带来的影响或是是否需要改革劳动力市场，根本忙不过来。但是，如同煤奠定了工业革命之基，廉价石油奠定了二战后的世界经济之基。若廉价石油不复存在，那经济肯定会大受影响。