China and Russia have more scope to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy than pretty much any other emerging market countries, according to analysis by JPMorgan Asset Management.
根据摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management，简称：JPMAM）的分析，在财政政策和货币政策两方面，中国和俄罗斯放宽政策的空间比几乎所有其他新兴市场国家都要大。
However investors in Brazil and Colombia can expect little help from policy easing, if the US fund house is correct.
如果这家美国基金公司的判断是正确的，巴西和哥伦比亚的投资者将无法指望获得由宽松政策带来的利好。
Others disagree, however. Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, argues that Brazil, alongside Russia, will enjoy tumbling interest rates in the next 12 months, but that very few countries will dare to loosen the fiscal purse strings.
但有些人不同意JPMAM的看法。安石投资管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)研究主管简?德恩(Jan Dehn)认为，巴西和俄罗斯在未来12个月内将大幅下调利率，但只有极少国家敢于放松财政政策。
JPMAM’s analysis is based on examining each country’s position in the monetary policy cycle, given current inflation levels, and its “fiscal flexibility”. This latter measure is a product of its current fiscal balance and its degree of “political capital”, measured by its leader’s approval rating in opinion polls, in the belief that popular governments “have more flexibility to implement stimulus programmes”.
JPMAM依据各国当前通胀水平和“财政灵活性”，研究各国在货币政策周期中所处的位置。其中“财政灵活性”指标由当前财政结余和“政治资本”决定——“政治资本”用一国领导人在民调中的支持率来衡量，其背后的理念是，受欢迎的政府“有更大的灵活性实施经济刺激计划”。
On the fiscal front, it concludes that China, Russia and the Dominican Republic have the most scope to loosen policy, with each combining moderate fiscal deficits with extremely popular governments (see chart).
在财政政策方面，JPMAM的结论是，中国、俄罗斯和多米尼加共和国放宽政策的空间最大，这几个国家都同时符合财政赤字适度和政府极受欢迎两大条件
In contrast, Brazil and Colombia languish with an unenviable combination of highly unpopular governments and budget deficits of around 5 per cent of gross domestic product.
相较之下，巴西和哥伦比亚不但政府很不得人心，财政赤字也达到国内生产总值(GDP)的5%左右。
Both Russia and China are also seen as being in the relatively early stages of monetary easing cycles. Even though Moscow has already cut rates from 17 per cent to 11.5 per cent since December, the market is pricing in about 400 basis points more of loosening in the next 12 months.
货币政策方面，JPMAM认为俄罗斯和中国正处在货币宽松周期中相对早期的阶段。尽管去年12月以来，俄罗斯已经将利率从17%下调至11.5%，但市场预计该国未来12个月还将降息约400个基点。
Beijing has also started easing to prop up its slowing economy, cutting its benchmark rate by 115 basis points to 4.85 per cent since November, although expectations for further loosening are more muted.
中国也已开始放松货币政策以支撑不断放缓的经济，自去年12月以来合计将基准利率下调了115个基点至4.85%，尽管目前市场对进一步放宽银根的预期减弱了。
In contrast, Brazil, where inflation has spiked to 8.9 per cent, is seen as still being in tightening mode, despite having raised rates by 275bp to 13.75 per cent in the past year. Mexico, South Africa and Malaysia are others JPMAM believes will need to tighten further, while Hungary, Poland and Mexico are viewed as being at the low point of their rate cycles (see chart).
在通胀率飙升至8.9%的巴西，尽管该国在过去一年中将利率上调了275个基点至13.75%，但仍然被认为还处于紧缩周期。除了巴西，JPMAM认为墨西哥、南非和马来西亚也需要进一步紧缩。匈牙利、波兰和墨西哥则已经处于利率周期的低点。
Zsolt Papp, global head of emerging market debt client portfolio strategies at JPMAM, says inflation is likely to fall sharply in Russia, given that the country is in recession and the impact of last year’s slump in the rouble will drop out of the equation this year, creating room for rate cuts.
JPMAM新兴市场债务客户投资组合策略全球主管佐尔特?帕普(Zsolt Papp)表示，鉴于俄罗斯正处于衰退之中，加上去年卢布暴跌带来的影响在今年将不复存在，该国通胀率可能大幅下降，为降息创造空间。
However, despite the analysis, which JPMAM uses to inform its tactical trading decisions, Mr Papp says he does not expect Moscow to significantly open the fiscal taps.
尽管如此，帕普认为俄罗斯不会大开财政“水龙头”。JPMAM使用该分析为自身的策略性交易决策提供参考。
“The Russian approach to public spending is that it doesn’t seem to work. If you embark on large infrastructure projects, half of it will disappear into various pockets. That is why you have not seen more fiscal easing,” he says.
帕普说：“俄罗斯人认为加大公共支出不会奏效。如果你启动大型基础设施项目，其中一半资金将会被中饱私囊。这就是你没看到更多财政宽松政策出台的原因。”
The Chinese government, still very popular if one believes the local opinion polls, is seen by JPMAM as the most likely to ease fiscal policy.
如果人们相信国内民调的话，那么可以说中国政府仍然非常受民众欢迎。JPMAM认为，中国是最有可能放松财政政策的国家。
“China stands out because their main aim is social peace. So far they have been focusing on monetary policy. We wouldn’t be surprised if they started to look at fiscal policy,” says Mr Papp, who argues that Beijing’s efforts to securitise local government debt constitutes “de facto fiscal easing”.
帕普表示：“中国与众不同，因为他们的主要目标是社会安定。迄今他们一直聚焦于货币政策。如果他们开始考虑财政政策，我们将不会感到意外。”他认为，中国政府将地方政府债务证券化的努力构成了“事实上的财政宽松举措”。
However sceptics may question JPMAM’s belief that popular leaders are more likely to launch fiscal stimulus programmes.
JPMAM相信，民调支持率高的领导人更可能启动财政刺激措施。但怀疑人士可能会质疑这一观点。
It could be argued that unpopular leaders heading for defeat at the next election would be more likely to try and garner support with a spending splurge.
可能有人辩称，民调支持率低、下次选举中注定败北的领导人更有可能利用大规模支出来争取民众支持。
Mr Papp does see this as a possibility in Brazil where Dilma Rousseff, who leads the most unpopular government since the restoration of democracy in 1986, could open the spigots “to try and recapture the support of her core electorate”.
帕普的确认为巴西可能出现这种情况——巴西总统迪尔玛?罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)领导的政府是该国自1986年恢复民主体制以来支持率最低的，他们可能打开财政水龙头，“以试图重获其核心选民的支持”。
Ashmore’s Mr Dehn is unconvinced, however. He sees Mr Rousseff’s embrace of fiscal and monetary discipline to help combat inflation as essential to protect the long-term reputation of her Workers’ party (PT), even if is unpopular in the short term.
然而，安石的德恩不同意这种说法。他认为，罗塞夫维护财政和货币纪律以帮助抵御通胀，这对保护劳工党长期名誉非常重要，即便在短期不受欢迎。
“If Dilma doesn’t manage to pull Brazil back from the brink then the PT party will forever be unelectable and have no future in Brazil. If they don’t do it they will be relegated to the dustbin of history,” he says.
他说：“如果迪尔玛没有成功让巴西摆脱困境，那么劳工党将永远无法在选举中获胜，它在巴西将没有未来。如果他们做不到这一点，他们将会被丢进历史的垃圾箱里。”
Mr Dehn goers further, arguing that few emerging market countries, bar notable outliers such as Ghana, tend to run loose fiscal policy nowadays as they have learnt how difficult it can be to regain control of the public finances.
德恩进一步指出，除了加纳等著名的异类以外，现在很少有新兴市场国家愿意采取宽松的财政政策，因为他们明白，重新控制公共财政有多困难。
Mr Dehn does, though, share JPMAM’s optimism over Russian monetary policy, with a “dramatic” fall in inflation in the offing as the rouble recovers somewhat from “overshooting” during its oil and Ukraine-fuelled slide.
不过，德恩与JPMAM一样对俄罗斯货币政策持乐观态度，认为随着卢布汇率从油价下跌和乌克兰危机引发的“暴跌”中有所回升，该国通胀水平很快就会“显著”下降。
He goes so far as to say Russia’s Elvira Nabiullina should be named central bank governor of the year for managing to avoid the need for capital controls and being “ballsy” enough to raise rates to 17 per cent, even as the oil price halved and sanctions mounted in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.
他甚至说道，俄罗斯的埃尔薇拉?纳比乌里娜(Elvira Nabiullina)应该被提名为“年度最佳央行行长”，原因是她成功使得俄罗斯不必出台资本管制措施，而且有足够“胆魄”将利率提高至17%，尽管当时油价下跌了一半、而俄罗斯在乌克兰危机之后遭受的制裁在不断升级。
In contrast to JPMAM’s model, Mr Dehn predicts “serious” rate cuts in Brazil in the next 12 months as the government and central bank succeed in “crushing” inflation.
对于巴西，德恩与JPMAM的看法不同。他预计，随着巴西政府和央行成功“制服”通胀，巴西在未来12个月内将会“大幅”降息。