Are markets taking too rosy a view of unemployment?
市场是否将失业状况看得过于乐观了？
Joblessness is usually seen as a lagging rather than a leading economic indicator. In the last two US downturns, firms continued shedding jobs for months after the recession was officially over. Typically, companies only start hiring in earnest once a recovery is clearly under way. But this time， unemployment may play a bigger role in determining the timing and shape of recovery.
失业通常被视为后续经济指标而非先导指标。在前两次美国经济衰退中，各公司在衰退正式 结束之后的几个月时间里还在继续裁员。通常公司只会在出现明显经济复苏的情况下才会正式地 开始招人。但这一次,失业状况可能在决定复苏时机和形式方面扮演更重要的角色。
Markets are betting the old orthodoxy still holds sway. Unemployment has climbed quickly. The US rate hit 9.5% in June. That is higher than at any point since 1983 and, up from 5.6% a year earlier, represents one of the steepest annual increases on record. In the Euro zone, May’s 9.5% rate was the highest in 10 years. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts rates of 10% in the US and more than 12% in the Euro zone in 2010.
各类持传统理论的市场仍然占据主导地位。失业率迅速攀升。美国6月份失业率达到9.5%，这 是1983年以来的最高纪录。较上年同期的5.6%还要高很多，为史上 最高的年度增幅之一。欧元区5月份失业率为9.5%，为10年来最高 水平经济合作与发展组织预测2010年美国失业率将达到10%,欧 元区将达到12%以上。
But that hasn't stopped equity markets rallying strongly, amid growing hopes of an economic recovery this year. That is partly because job losses and other cost cuts have provided a cushion for corporate profits. According to Deutsche Bank’s calculations, 82% of the S&P 500 companies to report so far have beaten second-quarter earnings expectations.
但这种情况并未阻止证券市场强劲反弹,因为今年实现经济复 苏的希望越来越大。这种情况部分是因为裁员和其他一些缩减成 本的措施为公茼利润提供了缓冲。据德意志银行计算,迄今发布业 绩的标准普尔500指数成股公司中有82%的公司第二财季业绩高于 预期。
For the moment, earnings are only being held up by costs shrinking fast alongside revenue. For a true recovery, sales need to start growing, too. Rising unemployment may make that harder to achieve.
当前，收益得到支撑只不过是因为成本也随收入一同迅速缩 减。要实现真正的复苏，销售也需要开始增长。失业率上升或许会 令这一点更难实现。
First, the flip side of better-than-expected corporate profits is real financial and consumer pain. US credit-card bad debt, for example, is rising faster than unemployment. Annualized write-offs of securitized credit-card debt hit a record 10.8% in June, according to Moody’s. The agency expects that to rise to 12% to 13% in mid-2010.
首先，好于预期利润的公司背面是实实在在的财务困境和 消费者的痛苦。举例来说，美国信用卡坏账的增长速度高于失 业增长。穆迪公司的数据显示，6月份对证券化的信用卡债务冲 销折合年率高达10.8%。穆迪预计这一数字在2010年中将达到 12% ?13%0
In Europe, Fitch’s U.K. credit-card charge-off index hit a record high of 9% in April. Historically, investors have assumed a one-percentage-point increase in unemployment leads to a one-percentage-point increase in bad credit-card debt. But the pace of job losses and scale of debt levels mean nobody is confident that the previous correlations will hold. Similarly, rising unemployment could hit house prices again, causing further turmoil for mortgage-backed securities.
在欧洲，惠誉的英国信用卡销账指数今年4月达到9%的纪录高 点。从历史上看，投资者们假定失业率每增加1个百分点就会导致信 用卡坏账增加1个百分点。但当前的失业速度和债务水平意味着,没 有人能确信以前这种关联是否还将有效。同样，失业率髙涨可能再度对房价形成打击，导致住房抵押证券进一步混乱。
Meanwhile, high joblessness also is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment. Nearly 60% of US consumers expect high unemployment to persist over the next several years, the University of Michigan reported Friday. That could shape behavior. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Beraanke warned last week that unemployment could weigh on consumer spending. That leaves the risk of a nasty feedback loop: Continued downward pressure on sales provides further impetus for companies to cut jobs, leading to more losses on consumer debt-and more economic pain.
同时,髙失业率还可能对消费者情绪形成压力。密歇根大学上周五的报告称，近60%的美国消 费者预计未来几年高失业的状况仍将持续。这一点可能影响消费者的行为。美国联邦储备委员会 主席贝南克上周警告说,失业状况可能给消费者开支造成压力。这样一来就有可能形成危险的恶 性循环:销售方面持续的下行压力进一步促使公司裁员，导致消费者债务的更多损失，进而造成更 多的经济困境。
According to the Labor Department of the US, the pace of job losses in the United States narrowed in July to 247,000 and the jobless rate fell unexpectedly to 9.4 percent.
根据美国劳工部数据显示，美国7月的失业数为24.7万,呈放缓趋势，失业率也降到了之前没 预料到的9.4%。
“This morning we received additional signs that the worst may be behind us,” said President Barack Obama in remarks after the report was released. “We have pulled the financial system back from the brink.”
奥巴马总统在数字公布之后表示：“今天早上我们又看到了最坏的情况已经过去的一些迹象， 我们已经把经济从崩溃边缘拉了回来。”
However, Obama also warned that there were still many challenges ahead.
但是，奥巴马也警告说,我们依然还要面对很多严峻的挑战。
“We have a steep mountain to climb and we started in a very deep valley，’’ said the president. “We have a lot further to go. As far as I’m concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we’re losing jobs, and we won’t rest until every American who is looking for job can find a job.”
他说:“我们就好像要从谷底爬上高山,还有很多路要走。就我所知,只要我们还有失业的情况， 经济就不能说已经复苏。我们会一直努力,直到每一个正在找工作的美国公民都找到工作为止/