As dozens of countries slip deeper into financial distress, new threats may be gathering force— the prospect that goods will pile up waiting for buyers and prices will fall, suffocating fresh investment and worsening joblessness for months or even years.
随着数10个国家在金融危机中越陷越深，一些新的威胁或许正趁势而起，货物堆积如山而无 人问津，价格下跌，新的投资被扼杀，失业率暴增,这些现象可能要 持续几个月甚至几年。
The word for this is deflation, or declining prices, a term that gives economists chills.
这种情况叫做通货紧缩,或物价持续走低，也是个让经济学家 不寒而栗的字眼。
Deflation accompanied the Depression of the 1930s. Persistently falling prices also were at the heart of Japan’s so-called “lost decade” after the catastrophic collapse of its real estate bubble at the end of the 1980s.
通货紧缩伴随着20世纪30年代的经济大萧条出现。不断下跌的 物价,也是20世纪80年代末日本房市泡沫灾难性破灭的所谓失落10 年的核心现象。
“That certainly is the snapshot of the risk I see,” said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at the research and trading firm ITG. “It is the crisis we face.”
ITG研究暨贸易公司首席经济学家罗伯特巴贝拉说那 的确是我看到的风险概况，它是我们所面临的危机。”
In the worst case，a long, slow retrenchment in which consumers and businesses worldwide lose the wherewithal to buy could send prices down for many goods. Though still considered unlikely, that would prompt businesses to slow production and accelerate layoffs, taking more paychecks out of the economy and further weakening demand.
最惨的情况是长期的缓慢紧缩，全球消费者和企业都不敢花 钱,可能会让许多商品价格下跌。虽然一般认为这还不可能发生，却 可能让企业放慢生产速度,加速裁员,把更多资金抽离经济体系’进 一步削弱需求。
The danger of this is the difficulty of a cure. Policy makers can generally choke off inflation by raising interest rates, dampening economic activity and reducing demand for goods. But as Japan discovered, an economy may remain ensnared by deflation for many years, even when interest rates are dropped to zero: falling prices make companies reluctant to invest even when credit is free.
其之所以危险在于困难难以解决。决策者通常可以借升息抑制 通货膨胀,抑制经济活动并降低商品需求。但一如日本所见’就算利 率掉到零,经济也可能依然陷人通货紧缩好几年:价格直落，即使信 贷宽松,企业仍不愿投资。
Not since the Depression has so many countries faced so much trouble at once. The financial crisis has gone global, like a virus mutating in the face of every experimental cure. From South Korea to Iceland to Brazil, the pandemic has spread, bringing with it a tightening of credit that has starved even healthy companies of finance.
自大萧条以来，从未有这么多个国家同时面对这么多麻烦。金 融危机遍及全球,就像病毒即使面对种种实验疗法仍一再突变一 样。从韩国到冰岛再到巴西,这种流行病四处扩散，连健全的金融企业所急需的信贷都为之紧缩。
“We’re entering a really fierce global recession,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at Harvard University. “A significant financial crisis has been allowed to morph into a full-fledged global panic. It’s a very dangerous situation. The danger is that instead of having a few bad years, we 11 have another lost decade.
曾任国际货币基金会首席经济学家、现为哈佛大学教授的肯尼斯罗格夫说我们正迈人真正 严重的全球经济衰退，一次重大经济危机任其演变发展成全面性全球恐慌，情况十分危险。危险的是我 们将经历另一个失落的10年,而不是难过几年。”
Global economic growth has flourished in recent years, much of it fertilized with borrowed investment. This raised kingdoms of houses in Florida and California, steel mills in Ukraine, slaughterhouses in Brazil and shopping malls in Turkey.
近年来，全球经济增长旺盛,绝大部分受惠于借贷投资。这也打造了佛罗里达州和加州的房市 王国，乌克兰的炼钢厂，巴西的屠宰场和土耳其的购物中心。
That tide is now moving in reverse. Banks and other financial institutions are reckoning with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of disastrous investments. As they struggle to rebuild their capital, they are halting loans to many customers, demanding swift repayment from others and dumping assets—homes sold out of foreclosure, investments linked to mortgages and corporate loans. Selling is pushing prices down further, making the assets left on balance sheets worthless, in some cases prompting another round of sales.
这股潮流现在已经逆转。银行和其他金融机构现在要处理价值数千亿美元的失败投资。由于 重建资本很辛苦，他们已中止放款给很多客户，并要求其他客户迅速还款，还抛售资产：断头拍卖 房屋.房贷相关投资和企业贷款。卖者进一步压低价格,使资产负债表上的资产价值减少，在某些 情况下又引发另一波抛售。
“You get this adverse feedback loop where assets keep falling in value,” Mr. Barbera said. “You， re essentially putting big downward pressure on the global economy.，，
巴贝拉说现在是逆向反馈圈，资产价值直落，难免对全球经济造成巨大的下降压力/
In past crises, like those that devastated Mexico in 1994 and much of Asia in 1997 and 1998， weak economies managed to recover by exporting aggressively, not least to the United States. But American consumers are battered this time. After years of borrowing against homes and tapping credit cards, consumers are pulling back.
在过去几次危机中，像1994年肆虐墨西哥,及1997和1998年肆虐亚洲大部分地区的危机，脆弱 的经济体借积极出口设法恢复元气，尤其是出口到美国。但美国消费者这次也很惨，在多年来以房 子抵押贷款且靠信用卡借钱后,消费者正在缩手。
“We’re going to be struggling with how to put this back together again for several more years,” said Barry P. Bosworth, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
布鲁金斯研究所资深研究员巴瑞波斯沃斯说要让情况全面恢复旧观,我们还要辛苦好几年。”