There is a grave danger that in December, 2009, world leaders will gather in Copenhagen to decide on a new global climate-change regime, only to find its chances effectively wrecked by the treasuries and finance ministries of the rich developed world.
如今面临一个严重的问题:各国领导人计划将于2009年12月聚 首哥本哈根对一项新的全球气候变化协议作出决定,不料达成协议 的可能性硬是被富裕发达国家的财政部给破坏了。
There are a number of potential deal breakers in these negotiations. One of them is the fact that developing countries will no longer let themselves be sidelined. In the past, developing countries have been brought on board by promises of financial support. But all they got was the creation of a couple of funds that subsequently stayed more or less empty. This has not gone unnoticed, and it is clear that at Copenhagen, developing countries will not settle for more “placebo firnds”.
气候谈判中存在的许多潜在因素使协议达成落空。其中之一就 是发展中国家将不再坐冷板凳。在过去，发展中国家因为资金支持 的承诺而被拉人谈判，但是,所得到的仅是建立几个基金,而大多数 最终皆成空壳。这一点在哥本哈根会议上没有被忽视，发展中国家 显然不会满足于更多的“画饼”。
The global sums required are of the order of current global foreign aid (Official Development Assistance), itself less than what is being spent on the war in Iraq. The United Kingdom, for example, would not be expected to cover more than 6% of this, which would make it of the order of revenue collected from UK electricity suppliers and earmarked for redistribution to them in the form of a “recycled green premium" (as part of a scheme known as “Renewables Obliga-tion”).
所需的全球资金总和相当于当前的全球外援(官方发展援助）, -其本身少于当前在伊拉克战争上的花费。例如，英国预计支付的数 目将不超过6%(这将相当于从英国电力供应商征来的税收）,以“再 生绿色奖金”(作为“可再生能源义务”计划的一部分)的形式重新分 配给这些公司。
The sums in question are significant, particularly relative to what has previously been on offer to support developing countries in their fight against climate change. But they would not be crippling to developed countries. It is true that in times of economic hardship, treasuries find it more difficult to transfer tax payers* money abroad, no matter how good and worthwhile the cause. But there are ways in which this domestic revenue problem can be overcome.
相关的资金数目可观，特别是与以前援助发展中国家抗击气候 变化的资金相比，但不至于使发达国家财政拮据。确实’在经济困难 时期,财政部感到更难将纳税人的钱转移到国外,无论理由是多么 好、多么值得。然而,还是有办法克服这个国内税收问题的。
Of course, finance ministries would be at a better starting point if their governments had not agreed to give away so many emission permits for free, as the European Union decided to continue to do when it reformed its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) last December~an example the United States Congress now looks to set to follow. Even so, some of whatever permit auction revenue remains available to national treasuries could be earmarked to support developing countries. This is what the European Commission and European Parlia-lt ment proposed, but they were largely overruled by EU finance ministries on the ground that earmarking (or hypothecation) is bad fiscal policy.
当然，假如政府不同意免费颁发太多的排放许可证（欧盟在去年12月改革其排放贸易计划 (ETS)的时候决定继续这样做——美国国会现在希望开始予以效仿），财政部将处于一个更好的 起点。即使如此,财政部所获得的任何许可证拍卖收人,有些也是可以用于援助发展中国家的。这 就是欧洲委员会和欧洲议会的提议，但是基本上被欧洲各国的财政部给推翻了,原因是这种专款 专用(或抵押)是一项糟糕的财政政策。
There have been alternative “innovative financing” proposals that would bypass national treasuries altogether. The Norwegian government has put forward the idea of retaining a number of emission permits at the international level in order to auction them internationally and to distribute the proceeds directly to developing countries. Another proposal by the Group of Least Developed Countries envisages a passenger levy for international air travel, again levied internationally and distributed to poorer countries. These two instruments could cover a significant proportion of the financial underpinning for developing countries in a new climate deal. Naturally, these proposals have not gone down well with finance ministries. They may argue against earmarking on grounds of fiscal purity, but for “fiscal purity” read “fiscal possessiveness，，.
另类“融资创新”计划将完全避开国家财政部。挪威政府提出，保留一些国际排放许可证在国 际上拍卖,并把所得收益直接分配给发展中国家。最不发达国家集团提出征收国际航空税,同样在 国际范围内征收,并分配给贫困国家。这两个融资工具将满足很大一部分在新的气候协议中提到 的用于支持发展中国家的资金。当然，这些计划尚未被各国财政部完全接受——财政部可能基于 财政纯度的理由反对专款专用，除非将“财政纯度”改为“财政专属”。
If there is to be a deal in Copenhagen, something will have to give and it must be the rich countries7 finance ministries. We will have to find the money required to support developing countries in mitigating their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. We will have to make use of all available tools and instruments. The sooner this is realized, the better. Or will we have to admit to our grandchildren that while we were aiming for less than two degrees warming, our treasuries insisted they could only afford four?
如果要在哥本哈根达成协议,必须有所付出，而且必须是富裕国家的财政部买单。我们必须找 到支持发展中国家减少排放和适应气候变化影响所需的资金，必须利用所有可获得的工具和手 段。这越早实现越好。否则,我们就得向我们的子孙们承认，尽管我们计划把气候变暖控制在2度之 内，而我们的财政部却坚持认为只能拿出控制在4度之内的资金。