Asian countries are beginning to build extensive social-welfare programs like those that long have existed in the West, a move they hope will encourage their people to save less, spend more and help put the regionand the world~on a stronger economic footing in the years ahead.
亚洲国家开始建立类似于长期存在于西方国家的广泛社会保障体系,希望此举能鼓励民众减 少储蓄，增加消费，以帮助亚洲地区乃至全球在未来数年打下更为坚实的经济基础。
But creating a reliable social safety net is hard work, and it may be a long time, perhaps decades, before Asia sees results.
但建立一个可靠的社会保障体系并非易事,而且是个长期过程，亚洲国家可能要几十年后才 能见到成效。
Analysts have long worried that Asians lack sufficient health，unemployment and other benefits to tide them over when downturns or emergencies occur, or to prepare for old age. Only about 30% of Asia’s elderly receive a pension, according to the United Nations. Just 20% of its unemployed have access to unemployment benefits or other work-related social programs.
分析人士一直担心,亚洲人缺乏足够的医疗、失业和其他福利保 障,在经济衰退或突发情况发生时难度难关，或无法应对养老问题。 据联合国统计，目前亚洲只有大约30%的老年人有退休金,只有20% 的失业人口享受到失业福利或其他与工作相关的社会福利计划。
Partly as a result, Asians tend to save more and spend less of their income than their counterparts in the West. That contributed to the global imbalances that are one cause of the current world recession: US consumers went deep into debt to finance consumption while Asians socked away money and relied on exports to Western consumers.
出于这个原因，亚洲人比西方人更加注重多储蓄少支出，从而 导致了全球失衡问题,这是造成当前全球衰退的一个因素:美国消 费者因贷款消费而深陷债务危机,而亚洲消费者却大举储蓄,依赖 于向西方消费者出口。
Social-welfare programs are one way of addressing those imbalances. The idea is that if Asian consumers have more confidence in their governments to take care of them in times of trouble, they will be more willing to spend today, igniting new demand for consumer goods and leaving the world economy less dependent on Western shoppers.
社会福利计划是解决这些失衡问题的一个途径。其原理是,如 果亚洲消费者更加相信政府会在困难时刻帮助他们,那么他们就会 更加愿意现在花钱，引发对消费产品的新需求,也使全球经济减少 对西方消费者的依赖。
Vietnam is implementing a national unemployment-benefits system. India has unveiled a voluntary pension system for up to several hundred million people who work at small companies, and is developing a nationwide identification database to better provide health care and other benefits.
越南正在实施一项全国性的失业福利项目。印度已经推出了一 项自愿退休金项目，面向数亿在小公司工作的印度人,并正在开发一 个全国性身份数据库,以更好地提供医疗和其他福利保障。
Those programs build on efforts undertaken in recent years. Thailand launched a national health-care program in 2001 that offers basic medical care for just 30 Thai baht, about $ 1，to most citizens. India’s latest national budget expands a program begun in 2005 that guarantees 100 days of work per year for rural laborers.
这些项目是建立在近年来所采取的诸多举措基础上的。泰国在 2001年推出了一项全国性医疗项目，为大多数公民提供基础医疗保 健，而每人只需要交纳30泰铢(约合1美元)的费用。印度最新的国家 预算扩大了一项始于2005年的项目，保证农民工每年有100天的工 作日。
But a stronger safety net is no guarantee Asians will consume more. Europeans enjoy one of the world’s most robust safety nets, and they tend to save more than Americans.
但是,一个更为完善的保障体系不代表亚洲人就会增加消费。欧洲人享受着全球最为坚实的 保障体系之一，但他们也比美国人更注重储蓄。
And it can take years, maybe decades, before consumers build up enough trust in welfare programs to modify spending behavior.
要使消费者对福利计划有足够的信任，从而刺激其消费行为可能需要花上数年，甚至几十年 的时间。
Those countries that have expanded their safety nets over the past decade have seen mixed results. In Thailand, residents were quick to take advantage of the country’s new national health-care program. More than 45 million people registered to participate by mid-2003. Consumer spending shot up soon after the program was introduced, but economists believe the surge was driven more by an expansion of consumer credit and a sharp uptick in growth that occurred as Thailand’s economy rebounded from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
在过去10年里,扩大社保项目的那些国家取得的效果参差不齐。在泰国，居民很快就享受到了 新的国家卫生保健福利。到2003年年中,有超过4500万人登记参加社保计划。在这个计划推出后不 久，消费者支出就大幅增加，但经济学家认为，这种激增更多是受消费信贷扩大和泰国经济在1997 年至1998年亚洲金融危机之后强劲增长的推动造成的。
Growth in consumer spending later slowed, and in recent years Thai land Js savings rate has begun climbing again after several years of declines, according to the Asian Development Bank. Most other major Asian countries have likewise seen their savings rates increase or stay about the same since the late 1990s, including Vietnam, where savings climbed to about 32% of gross domestic product in recent years from roughly 18% in 1995. Those trends could intensify in the future as the region struggles to fully recover from the current recession.
据亚洲开发银行称，消费支出后来出现了放缓,泰国的储蓄率在经历了几年的下降后，近年来 已开始再度攀升。其他大多数亚洲国家自90年代后期也同样出现了储蓄率增加或持平的情况，如 越南的储蓄率从1995年时占GDP的18%左右上升到了近年来的32%左右。随着亚洲地区努力摆脱 目前的经济衰退,实现经济复苏,这些趋势在未来可能还会更加明显。
None of that means Asian governments should stop investing in welfare programs. Such programs can greatly improve residents’ lives even if they don’t ultimately affect spending patterns. And the benefits in terms of changed consumer behavior may show up later.
所有这些并不意味着亚洲各国政府应该停止对社保计划的投资。即使最终并未影响到支出方 式，但这些计划也能大大提高居民的生活水平。消费者行为改变带来的好处可能会在以后显现出来。