The lack of improvement in Net New Hiring Activity in early July suggests that current job-market conditions have not improved, with the economy continuing to shed jobs for a seventh month in a row, and that the unemployment rate is likely to remain at its elevated June level of 5.5%.
7月初的新净就业调查活动显示,就业情况并未得到改善，就业 市场尚未好转。连续7个月就业率下跌的形势很可能使当前的失业 率维持在6月较高的5.5%的水平。
During the first week of July, the percentage of employees saying their companies are hiring more workers was 36.9% and the percentage reporting that their firms are eliminating jobs was 16.5%. These percentages are essentially the same as those for May and June but are down substantially from January.
调查显示，在7月第一周，被访问公司中表示他们公司还在继 续雇用新员工的雇员比例为36.9%,而表示公司正在辞退员工的 雇员比例为16.5%。这些比例基本上与上两个月的相同，但自1月 份来有所下降。
The job market is doing even worse than the overall economy, prompting concern inside and outside the government that deeper-than-expected joblessness could persist once the recession ends.
就业市场的情况要比总体经济情况还要糟糕,这种失业情况比预 期的要严重得多,使政府内外对衰退结束后的失业状况忧心仲仲。
Breaking from historical patterns, the unemployment rate~currently at 9.5%~is 1 to 1.5 percentage points higher than would be expected under one economic rule of thumb, says Lawrence Summers, President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost 6.5 million jobs, 4.7% of total employment. The unemployment rate has jumped five percentage points, while the economy has contracted by roughly 2.5%.
奥巴马首席经济顾问萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)表示，现在 的失业率是9.5%，比根据经济法则得出的数值要高了 1到1.5个百 分点,这也有悖历史规律。自2007年12月衰退以来,美国的工作岗 位已减少了650万份，占总就业岗位的4.7%。失业率上升了5个百分 点,而经济收缩了约2.5个百分点。
In recent days, Mr. Summers, White House budget director Peter Orszag and Fed Chairman Ben Beraanke have all talked publicly about the unusual disconnect between growth and employment. Stubborn unemployment could be a political problem for Mr. Obama, who pushed hard for a $ 787 billion stimulus plan this year and has already been criticized by Republicans for failing to stem the rise in the joblessness.
最近几天里，萨默斯、白宫预算办公室主任奥斯泽格(Peter Orszag)和美联储(Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bemanke)都公开谈论过 增长与就业之间不同寻常的脱钩现象。失业率持续居高不下可能是 奥巴马面临的一个政治问题，他今年一直在大力推行7870亿美元的 刺激计划，并因未能遏制失业率的上升而备受共和党人的指责。
Though today’s disparity between growth and jobs is especially stark, a jobless recovery wouldn’t be new: The last two recessions were marked by firms reluctant to resume hiring right away after demand recovered. The current disconnect between growth and employment could reflect an unanticipated surge in productivitycompanies finding ways to increase output with fewer workers. That could set up the economy to grow rapidly in future years. Rising productivity is the linchpin of economic growth and rising living standards.
尽管当前增长与就业脱钩现象严重，但伴随着失业率上升的复 inflationary pressure通货膨胀苏情况并不鲜见:上两次衰退都出现过企业在需求回升后不愿马上 压力增加招聘的情况。目前增长与就业之间的脱钩可能反映出生产率出人预料地提高了，即企业找到了在人员减少的情况下提高产出的途径。这可能促使经济在未来实现快速增长。生产率的提高是经济增长和生活水平提高的关键。
But there are darker scenarios. Struggling workers, whose wages also are being squeezed, could drag a fragile economy back into deep recession.
但这也导致了更暗淡的情况。收入下降、朝不保夕的工人可能拖累脆弱的经济陷人到严重的 衰退中。
“Final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization，” Mr. Bemanke told lawmakers this week as part of the Fed chairman’s semiannual report to Congress. “The labor market, however, has continued to weaken.”
本周在国会美联储主席半年度报告中，贝南克向议员表示终端需求和生产都出现了暂时稳 定的迹象。不过,就业市场还在继续走弱。”
Job insecurity could lead consumers to further pull back spending, he said, calling it “an important risk to the outlook”.
他表示,工作的不稳定性令消费者进一步减少了支出,这将是“未来面临的一大风险”。
For now, administration officials are taking a wait-and-see approach, and insist they have no plans to push new measures to counteract job losses. Officials say the $ 787 billion economic-stimu-lus package will have a bigger impact over the next six months.
目前，政府官员正采取观望措施，并坚持称他们不会推出新措施来降低失业率。有关官员表 示，7870亿美元的经济刺激计划将在今后半年里产生更大的影响。
The disparity between the job market and economic growth has other important implications. For Fed officials, it implies that there will be little upward pressure on prices and wages—in other words, little inflationary pressuregiving officials reason to hold off on raising interest rates any time soon.
就业市场和经济增长间的反差还会产生其他重要影响。对于美联储官员来说,这意味着价格 和工资上升的压力不大,换言之,也就是几乎没有通货膨胀的压力,这让官员有理由暂缓在短期内 加息。