经典名人英语演讲稿48：汽车的未来（通用汽车研发部副总裁拉里.伯恩斯2005年TED大会演讲） mp3

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[00:04.99]48. The Future of Cars
[00:07.80]The fact is, when we do our market research around the world, 
[00:10.87]we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people to own an automobile. 
[00:18.88]And 750 million people in the world today own a car. 
[00:24.34]And you say, boy, that's a lot. 
[00:27.71]But you know what? 
[00:30.60]That's just 12 percent of the population. 
[00:34.20]We really have to ask the question: 
[00:35.89]Can the world sustain that number of automobiles? 
[00:39.73]And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, 
[00:45.49]it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles. 
[00:50.97]Now, if you Parked those end to end and wrapped them around the Earth; 
[00:55.49]that would stretch around the Earth 125 times. 
[01:00.81]Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years. 
[01:07.99]Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, 
[01:11.55]more efficient and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago. 
[01:17.34]But the fact remains: the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the sane. 
[01:24.69]If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago, 
[01:30.86]knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product and about the technologies that exist today, 
[01:38.65]what would we do? 
[01:41.15]What we've targeted for ourselves--and we're making great progress for this goal--is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells, 
[01:51.10]designed and validated, 
[01:53.60]that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine--
[01:58.71]we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine--and do it in terms of its affordability, 
[02:04.65]add skill volumes, its performance and its durability. 
[02:09.62]So that's what we're driving to for 2010. 
[02:13.82]We haven't seen anything yet in our development work that says that isn't possible. 
[02:19.90]We actually think the future's going to be event-driven. 
[02:24.20]So since we can't predict the future, we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future. 
[02:31.10]I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time: 
[02:40.41]they're parked, they Parked all around us. 
[02:42.78]They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them. 
[02:46.51]Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile 
[02:51.86]and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States, it turns out that 4 percent of the automobiles, 
[02:56.85]the power in 4 percent of the automobiles, 
[02:57.86]equals that of the electric grid of the U.S. 
[03:00.63]That's a huge power-generating capability, a mobile power-generating capability. 
[03:07.84]And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked to generate electricity for the grid. 
[03:17.13]And the key to all of this is to make it affordable, to make it exciting, 
[03:22.41]to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it. 
[03:26.34]And again, this is a pretty big march to take here. 
[03:30.92]And a lot of people say: how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude? 
[03:38.76]And I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours. 
[03:44.19]Actually the theme of this conference, 
[03:47.49]I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off--and that's relationships and working together. 
[03:55.48]Thank you very much. (Applause).

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经典名人英语演讲稿48：汽车的未来（通用汽车研发部副总裁拉里.伯恩斯2005年TED大会演讲） mp3