Ted演讲：当地球人口达到100亿时我们将如何生存

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[00:00.13]Charles C. Mann: How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion? 	当地球人口达到100亿时，我们将如何生存？
[00:03.16]How are we doing?我们最近过得怎么样？
[00:04.51]No, no, no, by that, I meant, how are we, homo sapiens "we" ...doing as a species?哦不，我的意思是，最近，身为现代人的“我们”...作为一个物种，过得怎么样？
[00:11.59]Now the typical way to answer that question is this.关于这个问题的回答， 很典型的一类就是，
[00:13.86]You choose some measure of human physical well-being:选择一些描述人们身体状况的词：
[00:16.86]average longevity, average calories per day,平均寿命，每天平均的食物摄入量，
[00:19.83]average income, overall population, that sort of thing,平均收入，总人口等等，
[00:22.46]and draw a graph of its value over time.然后画一个随时间变化的曲线。
[00:25.35]In almost every case, you get the same result.在几乎所有的情况下， 你得到的都是同样的结果。
[00:28.39]The line skitters along at a low level for millennia,在几千年的时间线上，变化 都是处于一个较低的水平，
[00:31.13]then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.随后在19世纪和20世纪 以指数方式猛涨。
[00:34.64]Or choose a measure of consumption:或者以消耗量为单位：
[00:37.35]consumption of energy, consumption of fresh water,消耗了多少能源，用了多少水，
[00:39.98]consumption of the world's photosynthesis,消耗了多少光合作用，
[00:41.73]and draw a graph of its value over time.再画一个随时间变化的曲线。
[00:44.34]In the same way, the line skitters along at a low level for millennia,同样，时间线在几千年来 还是处于低值，且变化平缓，
[00:48.64]then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.在19世纪与20世纪 以指数方式猛涨。
[00:52.59]Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.生物学家对此的解释是：生物爆炸。
[00:55.76]An outbreak is when a population or species exceeds the bounds of natural selection.生物爆炸指的就是一种物种的数量超出了自然界所能承受的范围。
[01:01.16]Natural selection ordinarily keeps populations and species within roughly defined limits.通常来说，自然选择在大致范围内控制了人口和物种的数量。
[01:05.89]Pests, parasites, lack of resources prevent them from expanding too much.害虫，寄生虫，资源缺乏等 因素，导致它们无法过度繁殖。
[01:10.67]But every now and then, a species escapes its bounds.但偶尔，一些物种 也会突破自身的边界。
[01:14.22]Crown-of-thorns starfish in the Indian Ocean, zebra mussels in the Great Lakes, spruce budworm here in Canada.比如印度洋的棘冠海星，北美五大湖的斑马贻贝， 加拿大的云杉蚜虫。
[01:20.72]Populations explode, a hundredfold, a thousandfold, a millionfold.这些生物数量是呈百倍，千倍，甚至是万倍增长的。
[01:24.93]So here's a fundamental lesson from biology: outbreaks in nature don't end well.下面是一个生物学中普遍的教训：自然界中的生物爆炸 通常没什么好结果。
[01:30.66](Laughter)（笑声）
[01:31.47]Put a couple of protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.把几种单细胞生物放入 一个有营养物质的培养皿中，
[01:36.75]In their natural habitat, soil or water, their environment constrains them.在它们的自然环境中，土壤 或水分等因素限制了它们的繁衍。
[01:41.50]In the petri dish, they have an ocean of breakfast and no natural enemies.而在培养皿中，它们营养充足，并且没有天敌。
[01:45.32]They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce, until bang, they hit the edge of the petri dish,它们不断地摄入与繁殖，直到有一天，它们撑爆了培养皿，
[01:50.18]at which point they either drown in their own waste, starve from lack of resources, or both.只能要么淹没在自己的排泄物中，要么因缺乏营养而饿死， 或者两者兼有之。
[01:53.95]The outbreak ends, always, badly.生物爆炸总是以糟糕的方式结束。
[01:57.29]Now, from the viewpoint of biology, you and I are not fundamentally different than the protozoa in the petri dish.从生物学的方面来看，你和我比起培养皿中的单细胞生物， 并没有什么本质上的区别，
[02:04.35]We're not special.我们并不特殊。
[02:06.11]All the things that we, in our vanity, think make us different --art, science, technology, and so forth, they don't matter.我们因虚荣心而认为， 思想使得我们与众不同，艺术，科技等等，但这些都不重要。
[02:13.66]We're an outbreak species,我们就是一种生物爆炸的物种，
[02:15.80]we're going to hit the edge of the petri dish, simple as that.我们就要撑爆我们的 培养皿了，就这么简单。
[02:17.71]Well, the obvious question: Is this actually true?不过有个显而易见的问题： 这会是真的吗？
[02:21.17]Are we in fact doomed to hit the edge of the petri dish?我们的人口真的会达到极限吗？
[02:24.94]I'd like to set aside this question for a moment and ask you guys another one.我暂且先把这个问题放一放，来问大家另一个问题。
[02:28.43]If we are going to escape biology, how are we going to do it?如果我们能够突破 生物爆炸的宿命，要怎么做呢？
[02:31.90]In the year 2050, there will be almost 10 billion people in the world,到2050年，地球上将会有100亿人口，
[02:36.75]and all of those people will want the things that you and I want:并且我们想要的东西， 这些人也都会需要：
[02:39.74]nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes, the odd chunk of Toblerone.豪车，名牌衣服，大别墅，奇奇怪怪的三角巧克力。
[02:44.81]I mean, think of it: Toblerone for 10 billion people.假设把三角巧克力分给100亿个人。
[02:48.00]How are we going to do this?要怎么实现呢？
[02:49.13]How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody,我们怎么给每个人 足够的食物，足够的水，
[02:52.12]provide power to everybody, avoid the worst impacts of climate change?让每个人保持足够的体力 来应对最极端的气候变化？
[02:55.27]I'm a science journalist, and I've been asking these questions to researchers for years,我是一名科学记者，这些年来我一直在问专家们这些问题，
[03:00.85]and in my experience, their answers fall into two broad categories, which I call "wizards" and "prophets."以我的经验看来，他们的回答大体可分为两大类，就是我说的“奇才”和“先知”。
[03:07.24]Wizards, techno-whizzes, believe that science and technology, properly applied, will let us produce our way out of our dilemmas.奇才，也就是所谓的技术宅，认为恰当地运用科技，会让我们找到摆脱困境的方法。
[03:14.91]Be smart, make more, they say.他们会说：“机灵点，提高生产力。
[03:16.65]That way, everyone can win.那样的话，每个人都会生存下来。”
[03:18.38]Prophets believe close to the opposite.先知们则认为恰恰相反。
[03:21.56]They see the world as governed by fundamental ecological processes with limits that we transgress to our peril.他们认为世界有一种 基本的生态法则，而我们必须遵守这个法则， 不然就要自食其果。
[03:29.24]Use less, conserve, they say.他们会说“少用点，存起来，
[03:32.00]Otherwise, everybody's going to lose.不然的话，每个人都得饿死。”
[03:33.85]Wizards and prophets have been butting their heads together for decades,几十年来，奇才与先知的 观点一直处于对立的状态，
[03:37.82]but they both believe that technology is key to a successful future.但他们都认为，科技是一把 通向美好明天的钥匙。
[03:41.90]The trouble is, they envision different types of technology and different types of futures.分歧在于，他们所预想的科技和未来都是不一样的。
[03:47.27]Wizards envision a world of glittering, hyperefficient megacities surrounded by vast tracts of untouched nature,奇才们认为世界上都是 灯火辉煌的，高效率的大城市，被周围广阔的原生态自然所包围着，
[03:55.93]economies that have transitioned from atoms to bits, dematerialized capitalist societies that no longer depend on exploiting nature.经济体从实体经济转向数字经济，非物质化的资本主义社会不再依赖于剥削自然。
[04:02.59]Energy, to wizards, comes from compact nuclear plants;在奇才们看来，能源来自于核电站，
[04:06.80]food from low-footprint farms with ultraproductive,来自于高生产力的小农场 生产的转基因食物，
[04:09.00]genetically modified crops tended by robots;并且这些庄稼都由机器人看管；
[04:11.55]water from high-throughput desalination plants, which means we no longer exploit rivers and aquifers.水源都来自于高流通量的 海水淡化工厂，这就意味着我们不再需要利用河流与地下水。
[04:17.78]Wizards envision all 10 billion of us packed into ultradense but walkable megacities,这些人假设把我们100亿人，全部塞进一个交通便捷的特大城市，
[04:22.43]an urbanized world of maximum human aspiration and maximum human liberty.这是一个全人类的美好愿景：高度自由化的超级城市化世界。
[04:26.66]Now, prophets object to every bit of this.而先知们则反对这一切说辞。
[04:30.62]You can't dematerialize food and water, they point out.他们指出，你不能抹去 水和食物的物质形态，
[04:33.55]They say, you can't eat bits,你不可能以吃比特为生吧，
[04:36.25]and industrial agriculture has already given us massive soil erosion, huge coastal dead zones and ruined soil microbiomes.而且工业化农业生产已经给我们 造成了严重的水土流失，造成海洋水体富营养化， 微生物群落被摧毁。
[04:42.76]And you wizards, you want more of this?那我问你们，这些土地 都贫瘠成这副样子了，
[04:44.65]And those giant desalination plants?还想着建你们的海水淡化工厂？
[04:47.34]You know they generate equally giant piles of toxic salt that are basically impossible to dispose of.毕竟，它们会产生大量的有毒盐，而这些基本上都是不可能处理掉的。
[04:52.26]And those megacities you like?这就是你喜欢的超级城市？
[04:55.21]Can you name me an actually existing megacity that really exists in the world today, except for possibly Tokyo, that isn't a cesspool of corruption and inequality?你能给我列出一座现实世界存在的这种城市吗，除了东京之外，而且看着还不像一个 腐败和不平等的污浊之地？
[05:04.62]Instead, prophets pray for a world of smaller, interconnected communities,相反地，先知们希望这个世界 是一个更小型的，相互关联的社区，
[05:11.92]closer to the earth, a more agrarian world of maximum human connection and reduced corporate control.与自然相处更和谐，一个全人类紧密相连的农业世界，没有任何商业纷争。
[05:19.11]More people live in the countryside in this vision,在这个愿景中，更多的人居住在乡下，
[05:23.17]with power provided by neighborhood-scale solar and wind installations that disappear into the background.用全社区规模的太阳能 与对环境无破坏的风力发电机来提供电力。
[05:28.37]Prophets don't generate water from giant desalination plants.先知们才不会用淡化工厂来提取水呢，
[05:33.60]They capture it from rainfall, and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.他们在降雨中获得水分，并且不断地重复使用和循环利用。
[05:39.55]And the food comes from small-scale networks of farms that focus on trees and tubers rather than less productive cereals like wheat and rice.食物呢，则有小型的网络型农场，专门栽种树木和薯类，而不是像大米小麦这样产量低的谷物。
[05:49.80]Above all, though, prophets envision people changing their habits.最重要的是，先知们希望人们 能够改变他们的生活方式。
[05:55.65]They don't drive to work, they take their renewable-powered train.他们不用开车上班， 而是乘坐可再生能源列车。
[05:58.67]They don't take 30-minute hot showers every morning.他们每天早上不用再 花30分钟来洗个热水澡。
[06:01.21]They eat, you know, like Michael Pollan says, real food, mostly plants, not too much.像迈克尔 ・ 波伦说的，他们吃的是真正的食物， 绝大多数是素食，还要控制食量。
[06:07.53]Above all, prophets say submitting to nature's restraints leads to a freer, more democratic, healthier way of life.最重要的就是，先知们提倡利用 地球母亲给我们提供的一切，引领一个更自由，更民主， 更健康的生活方式。
[06:16.86]Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.不过，奇才们则认为 这些都是异想天开。
[06:20.11]They see it as a recipe for narrowness, regression, and global poverty.他们觉得这会导致狭隘， 倒退，以及全球性的贫困。
[06:23.61]Prophet-style agriculture, they say, only extends the human footprint and shunts more people into low-wage agricultural labor.他们认为“先知”式的农业 就是扩展人类的足迹，给更多的人分配低薪的农务。
[06:31.26]Those neighborhood-run solar facilities, they sound great, but they depend on a technology that doesn't exist yet.那些在社区使用的太阳能装置，听起来还不错，但依赖于一种尚未开发出来的技术手段？
[06:38.00]They're a fantasy.完全是痴人说梦。
[06:39.50]And recycling water? It's a brake on growth and development.再说循环利用的水，这就是 限制社会发展的一颗毒瘤。
[06:42.51]Above all, though, wizards object to the prophets' emphasis on wide-scale social engineering,最重要的是，奇才们反对先知们在 大规模社会生产上的观点，
[06:47.87]which they see as deeply anti-democratic.他们认为这是完全反民主的。
[06:50.44]If the history of the last two centuries was one of unbridled growth,如果过去两个世纪的历史 是无节制增长的话，
[06:54.72]the history of the coming century may well be the choice we make as a species between these two paths.那么下一个世纪的历史很可能是，我们作为一个物种 在这两条道路之间做出的选择。
[07:00.79]These are the arguments that will be resolved, in one way or another,这些问题不管怎样，都会被我们的
[07:04.69]by our children's generation, the generation that will come into the world of 10 billion.下一代给解决掉，终将成为构成100亿人口的下一代人。
[07:09.55]Now, but wait, by this point, biologists should be rolling their eyes so loud you can barely hear me speak.等会儿，生物学家们 现在应该对此嗤之以鼻，它们的反对之声大到 你都听不到我说话了。
[07:14.86]They should be saying, all of this, wizards, prophets, it's a pipe dream.他们铁定会说，所有这些 “奇才”，“先知”之类的，都是白日梦。
[07:19.85]It doesn't matter which illusory path you think you're taking.你认为你做的是 什么白日梦并不重要。
[07:24.63]Outbreaks in nature don't end well.自然界的生物爆炸注定没有好结果。
[07:27.91]I mean, you think the protozoa see the edge of the petri dish approaching and say, "Hey guys, time to change society"?我是说，你以为单细胞动物 看到了培养皿的边缘正在靠近，然后说，"朋友们，我们是不是 该改变一下社会结构了？”
[07:33.16]No. They just let her rip.不，它们只会继续。
[07:35.33]That's what life does, and we're part of life.这就是生命，我们也是 这个生命的一部分。
[07:38.26]We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.我们也会做同样的事。 直面这个事实吧。
[07:39.81]Well, if you're a follower of Darwin, you have to take this into consideration.如果你是达尔文的追随者， 就必须考虑到这一点。
[07:46.27]I mean, the basic counterargument boils down to: "We're special."基本的反驳可以归结为： “我们是特殊的。”
[07:50.76]How lame is that?是不是挺厚颜无耻的？
[07:52.54](Laughter)（笑声）
[07:53.30]I mean, we can accumulate and share knowledge and use it to guide our future.我们可以积累和分享知识，再用知识来引领我们的未来。
[07:57.72]Well, are we actually doing this?但我们真的在行动了吗？
[07:59.48]Is there any evidence that we're actually using our accumulated, shared knowledge to guarantee our long-term prosperity?有什么证据能够证明 我们在用我们所积攒的知识，来保证我们长期的繁荣呢？
[08:08.34]It's pretty easy to say no.答案显而易见是否定的。
[08:10.80]If you're a wizard, and you believe that hyperproductive, genetically engineered crops are key to feeding everyone in tomorrow's world,如果你站在奇才那边，并且相信高产转基因作物在未来能够保证每个人的温饱的话，
[08:17.58]you have to worry that 20 years of scientists demonstrating that they are safe to consume has failed to convince the public to embrace this technology.那你就不得不担心，20年来科学家一直在证明 转基因食物是安全的，却没能够说服公众接受这项技术。
[08:25.61]If you're a prophet如果你是先知的话，
[08:27.42]and you believe that key to solving today's growing shortage of fresh water is to stop wasting it,你也相信解决如今 水资源短缺的唯一关键就是节约用水，
[08:33.78]you have to worry that cities around the world,那你也不得不担心 世界上所有的城市里，
[08:37.30]in rich places as well as poor,不管是富裕还是贫穷的地方，
[08:38.80]routinely lose a quarter or more of their water to leaky and contaminated pipes.通常都会因为破损 和受到污染的管道，浪费掉至少四分之一的水。
[08:43.29]I mean, Cape Town, just a little while ago, almost ran out of water.举个例子，前阵子 开普敦差点就没水用了。
[08:47.74]Cape Town loses a third of its water to leaky pipes.开普敦有三分之一的水 是因管道漏水而流失的。
[08:50.25]This problem has been getting worse for decades, and remarkably little has been done about it.几十年来这个问题一直在恶化，让人无语的是，人们在这个问题上 几乎没有采取任何措施。
[08:54.89]If you're a wizard, and you think that clean, abundant,如果你是一个奇才的话， 你会认为清洁、丰富、
[08:58.54]carbon-free nuclear power is key to fighting climate change,无碳的核能是对抗气候变化的关键，
[09:01.30]then you have to worry that the public willingness to build nukes is going down.那你就不得不考虑公众对于建造核电站的意愿正在下降。
[09:05.32]If you're a prophet, and you think that the solution to the same problem is these neighborhood-run solar facilities shuttling power back and forth,如果你是先知，你觉得 解决同样问题的关键是靠这些社区运营的太阳能设施 来回运送的电力的话，
[09:12.35]you have to worry that no nation anywhere in the world has devoted anything like the resources necessary to develop this technology你就不得不考虑， 这世上是否有哪个国家真正投入了开发 这项技术所需的资源，
[09:19.88]and deploy it in the time that we need it.并且在我们需要的时候能够部署它。
[09:22.31]And if you're on either side, wizard or prophet,如果你是任意一方，奇才或先知，
[09:24.87]you have to worry that, despite the massive alarm about climate change,你得考虑，尽管气候变化的 严重预警早已出现，
[09:28.11]the amount of energy generated every year from fossil fuels has gone up by about 30 percent since the beginning of this century.自本世纪初以来，每年从化石燃料中产生的能量增加了约30%。
[09:36.61]So, still think we're different than the protozoa?那么，你还认为我们 和单细胞动物不一样吗?
[09:40.20]Still think we're special?还觉得我们很特别吗？
[09:43.41]Actually, it's even worse than that.实际情况其实更加糟糕。
[09:47.47](Laughter)（笑声)
[09:49.44]We're not in the streets.我们又不是在市区。
[09:51.10]No seriously, if there's a difference between us and the protozoa,说真的，如果说我们与单细胞动物 之间存在什么差异的话，
[09:54.81]a difference that matters,一个重要的差异
[09:55.57]it's not just our art and science and technology and so forth --并不是我们的艺术和科技等等――
[09:58.93]it's that we can yell and scream, we can go out into the streets,而是我们可以走到大街上， 我们可以大喊大叫，
[10:01.50]and, over time, change the way society works, but we're not doing it.随着时间的推移， 改变了社会的运作方式，但我们并没有。
[10:05.33]Wizards have been arguing literally for decades that nuclear power is key to resolving climate change.几十年来，奇才们一直在争论核能是不是解决气候变化的关键。
[10:14.60]But the first pro-nuke march in history occurred less than two years ago,但历史上第一次支持核武器的 游行就发生在不到两年前，
[10:18.91]and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke marches of the past.与过去的反核武器游行相比， 它显得相形见绌。
[10:21.86]Prophets have been arguing, again literally for decades,先知们几十年来一直在争论，
[10:25.28]that conservation is key to keeping freshwater supplies without destroying the ecosystems that generate those freshwater supplies.在不破坏产生淡水供应的 生态系统的前提下，保持淡水供应的关键就是贮存。
[10:32.89]But in the history of humankind, there has never been a street full of angry protesters waving signs about leaky pipes.但在人类历史上， 从来没有任何一条街挤满了挥舞着写着破旧管道 标语的愤怒的抗议者。
[10:39.20]In fact, most of the political activity in this sphere has been wizards and prophets fighting each other, 事实上，在这个领域的 大多数政治活动，一直都是奇才们和先知们 在相互争斗，
[10:45.17]protesting each other rather than recognizing that they are, fundamentally, on the same side.相互抗议，而不是承认他们从根本上 就是在同一战线的。
[10:50.55]After all, these people are concerned about the same thing:毕竟，这些人都在关心同一个问题：
[10:53.55]How are we going to make our way in the world of 10 billion?在100亿人口的世界里， 我们将如何生存?
[10:56.98]The first step towards generating that necessary social movement,开始必要的社会运动， 创造一种群众效益，
[11:00.37]creating that critical mass and getting that yelling and screaming going seems obvious to me: wizards and prophets join together.并且开始走上街 游行的第一步是显而易见的：奇才们与 先知们是在同一战线的。
[11:05.84]But how are you going to do this, given the decades of hostility?但考虑到十几年来的 敌意，要如何实现呢？
[11:09.80]One way might be this:一种可行的方式是这样：
[11:10.86]Each side agrees to accept the fundamental premises of the other.双方同意接受对方的基本前提。
[11:15.28]Accept that nuclear power is safe and carbon-free,接受核能是安全且无碳的，
[11:19.78]and that uranium mines can be hideously dirty而且铀矿的污染也非常严重，
[11:22.47]and that putting large volumes of toxic waste on rickety trains把大量的有毒污染物 滞留在破旧的火车上，
[11:26.99]and shuttling them around the countryside is a terrible idea.让火车在乡村间穿行 是个糟糕的想法。
[11:29.24]To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of small, neighborhood scale, temporary nukes,对我来说，这很快就 引出了一个想法，在我们发展和部署可再生能源时，
[11:37.05]nuclear power as a bridge technology while we develop and deploy renewables.小型社区的临时核电站供应的 核能是我们的过渡性技术。
[11:40.59]Or accept that genetically modified crops are safe或者接受改良转基因食物是安全的，
[11:44.36]and that industrial agriculture has caused huge environmental problems.并且农业产业化已经 对环境造成了巨大破坏。
[11:48.20]To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of plant scientists devoting much more of their attention to tree and tuber crops,在我看来，植物科学家们 很快就会发现他们应该花费更多的精力研究那些比谷物更高产，
[11:55.44]which can be much more productive than cereals, use much less water than cereals, and cause much less erosion than cereals.比谷物更节水，对环境 造成的侵蚀更少的作物，像树木和薯类作物。
[12:01.70]Look, these are just ideas from a random journalist.注意，这些想法都只是 来自我这样一个普通人。
[12:04.00]I'm sure there's a hundred better ones right here in this room.而我相信在这儿 有更多人比我聪明。
[12:06.19]The main point is, wizards and prophets working together have many paths to success.问题的关键就是，奇才和先知的观点结合起来 会使人类走向成功。
[12:12.38]And success would mean much more than mere survival, important though that is.而成功不仅仅意味着生存，尽管活下来的确很重要。
[12:16.67]I mean, if humankind somehow survives its own outbreak,我是说，如果人类能够挺过来的话，
[12:19.84]if we get food to everybody, get water to everybody, get power to everybody,如果我们能有保证 每个人都饭吃，有水喝，有电用，
[12:23.17]if we avoid the worst effects of climate change,要是我们避开 气候变化的严重后果的话，
[12:27.44]if we somehow safeguard the biome,要是我们能够保护生物圈的话，
[12:29.48]it would be amazing.那未来就会相当美好。
[12:30.77]It would say, I think, even to a hardened cynic like me, maybe we really are special.我觉得我会说，即使像我这样冷酷的愤世嫉俗者，都会觉得我们这个物种可能真的有点特别。
[12:37.61]Thank you.谢谢大家。
[12:39.20](Applause)（掌声）

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Ted演讲：当地球人口达到100亿时 我们将如何生存

Ted演讲：当地球人口达到100亿时我们将如何生存