This is Gwen Outen with the VOA Special English DevelopmentReport.

New research shows that Earth will have more than nine thousandmillion people by two thousand fifty. The world population iscurrently estimated at six point four thousand million.

The research is from the Population Reference Bureau, a privategroup based in Washington. It says most growth will take place indeveloping countries in Africa and western Asia.

India is expected to pass China as the world's most populatednation. By the middle of the century, the report says, India willhave over one and one-half thousand million citizens, an increase offifty percent.

China currently has one point three thousand million people. ThePopulation Reference Bureau says the population should increaseabout ten percent by two thousand fifty.

Most industrial nations will see a drop in their populations. Theonly big exception is expected to be the United States. The reportsays the United States will remain the third biggest nation. Thepopulation is close to three hundred million now. It is expected toreach four hundred twenty million. The report says this will bebecause of immigration and low death rates among babies.

Between now and two thousand fifty, Niger is expected to be thefastest growing country. The biggest decrease is expected inBulgaria.

The study is based on information from governments and the UnitedNations. Researcher Carl Haub wrote the report. He examined infantdeath rates, life expectancy, birth rates and the age structure ofnations. The study also considered family planning use and, for thefirst time, rates of AIDS.

Mister Haub says most growth will take place in countries withyoung populations and traditionally large families. He points toNigeria and Japan as two nations that are moving in oppositedirections in terms of population.

In Nigeria, almost half the people are under the age of fifteen.Few are over sixty-five. Nigerian women generally give birth aboutsix times during their lives. By comparison, the average Japanesewoman has one child. And today about twenty percent of Japanese areover the age of sixty-five.

Mister Haub expects the Japanese population to decrease by twentypercent. He estimates that the population of Nigeria will increaseby more than one hundred twenty percent by the middle of thecentury.

This VOA Special English Development Report was written by JillMoss. This is Gwen Outen.