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Welcome to Science in the News in VOA Special English. I'm BobDoughty.

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And I'm Sarah Long. This week: a research vehicle that will carrypeople to ninety-nine percent of the ocean floor and we answer alistener's question about the famous English scientist, IsaacNewton.

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But first, we have a look at the science of public opinionstudies.

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Americans are electing a President Tuesday. We hope to learn thename of the winner soon. However, public opinion studies have beenattempting to identify the winner for several months now. Every fewdays another study claims to know which candidate has the mostsupport.

What exactly are these studies? How and where do they get theirnumbers? And, how trustworthy are the findings?

Some of the best-known opinion research companies are the GallupOrganization, Zogby International and the Pew Research Center. Thesecompanies often work for news organizations during an electioncampaign. This is why a study will often have several namesconnected with it.

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For example, you might read about a C.N.N./U.S.A. Today/Gallupstudy. A Gallup official says this means that Cable News Network andthe newspaper U.S.A. Today requested and paid for the study. And,they have the right to report results of the study first. But, theofficial says news organizations normally have no control over howthe study is carried out or its results.

In the United States, opinionresearch companies often question about one-thousand people for astudy. Mathematical evidence suggests that this is enough people fora general understanding of the country's one-hundred-millionpossible voters. If two-thousand people are questioned, the resultsdo not change very much. Experts say the science of questioningpeople is similar to the science of testing blood. A small amountcan closely represent the whole.

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Many research companies have equipment that can create telephonenumbers from all the areas of the United States. A telephoneconnected to a computer then calls a number at random. This meanseach number has the same chance of being called. The process ismeant to guarantee that people across the country are represented inthe study.

Some companies use numbers of people who are listed withpolitical parties. This is a more direct way to reach likely voters.However, it may not be as representative. This method may notinclude new voters. It also may miss people who keep their telephonenumber private or use only wireless phones. And, most calling isdone at night. So people who work nights are likely to be missed.

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Opinion research companies question adult members of homes. Theyseek people of different racial and socio-economic groups andparties. And they want to balance representation in the study withrepresentation in the general population. But, it is not likely thatany one study group will be perfectly representative.

So, researchers commonly use a method called "weighting" in aneffort to balance the study. In simple terms, they will increase theinfluence of groups that are not fairly represented in the study.They give more weight to answers provided by members of such groups.

Political opinion studies always weight likely voters. There areseveral methods they use to judge if someone is likely to vote. TheGallup Organization has a list of questions to measure a person'sinterest in the election. Research companies also consider how aperson voted in earlier elections.

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No opinion study is perfect. All such studies come with what iscalled a margin of error. A study of one-thousand randomly chosenpeople will produce results with a three percent margin of error. Inother words, ninety-five percent of the time another study willproduce similar results, within three percentage points.

Most researchers would say they want their studies to be asscientific as possible. But, it is hard to create completely neutralquestions. And, even if questions are neutral, the order that theyare asked may affect the results.

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American scientists have announced plans for a new deep-seadiving research vehicle. It will be able to carry people toninety-nine percent of the ocean floor. The planned vehicle willreplace Alvin, a submarine that has been operating for forty years.Alvin has helped researchers study deep-sea creatures, the movementof continents and even the wreck of the passenger ship Titanic.

The new vehicle will be ready in four years. It is expected tocost more than twenty-one million dollars. Most of the money willcome from an independent federal agency, the National ScienceFoundation. The foundation supports research projects and educationin all areas of science and engineering.

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The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution will operate the newvehicle as it now operates Alvin. Woods Hole is a private researchorganization in Falmouth, Massachusetts.

The planned vehicle will be able to dive six thousand fivehundred meters below the surface of the ocean. Alvin dives to fourthousand five hundred meters.

Scientists say the new vehicle will be able to explore areas ofthe ocean that have not been explored before. The new vehicle isexpected to dive faster and move forward more quickly than Alvin. Italso will carry more scientific equipment and have betterinformation collection and communication systems.

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The National Science Foundation says the replacement for Alvinwill require no major changes to its support ship, the Atlantis.And, the operating costs of the underwater vehicles are expected tobe similar. Alvin is the only deep-diving human-occupied vehicle inthe United States. There are four other such vehicles in the world.

The submarine has completed more than four thousand dives. Italso has transported more than twelve thousand people to thedeep-sea floor. Alvin has spent more than twenty-seven thousandhours underwater since nineteen sixty-four.

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Our listener question this weekcomes from Saudi Arabia. Mohd Nafisah asks about the great scientistIsaac Newton.

Newton was born in sixteen-forty-two in Woolsthorpe, England.During his lifetime, he made discoveries in astronomy, mathematics,optics, and physics. They helped change the direction of scientificdiscovery for centuries.

Newton received his education at Trinity College in Cambridge,England. He invented the theory of integral calculus in thesixteen-sixties. Calculus is the area of mathematics that deals withchanging amounts, or quantities. A German mathematician, GottfriedWilhelm von Leibniz, developed differential calculus independently.

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Newton discovered how the universe is held together. He calledthis theory, the "Law of Universal Gravitation." He explained hisideas in a book commonly called "Principia." It is considered byexperts to be one of the greatest scientific books ever written. Itincludes Newton's three laws of motion.

His first law of motion states that an object in motion willcontinue moving unless it is affected by a foreign, or outside,force. His second law says the speed of an object depends on twothings -- the force acting on the object and the object's mass. Histhird law states that, for every action, there is an equal andopposite reaction.

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Newton showed that white light was made up of colors mixedtogether. He discovered this through a series of experiments with aprism of cut glass. He used his discoveries to build a reflectingtelescope. It used a flat surface to show images of objects in thesky.

Isaac Newton died in seventeen twenty-seven. He was buried atWestminster Abbey in London. Today, he is considered one of thegreatest scientists who ever lived. His laws and theories influencedreligion and culture for years after his death.

To learn more about Newton's influence on our world, computerusers should visit the New York City Public Library Internet websiteat www.nypl.org. The Library currently has a show about Sir IsaacNewton and his life. It can be seen at one of New York's PublicLibraries through February fifth of next year.

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This program was written by Caty Weaver, George Grow and JillMoss. Cynthia Kirk was our producer. And, our engineer was DwayneCollins. I'm Sarah Long.

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And I'm Bob Doughty. Join us again next week for Science in theNews in VOA Special English.

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